U.S.D.A. raises carryover projections from September

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Oct. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report raised U.S. 2009 carryover projections from September for corn, soybeans and wheat.

Projected corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2009, was 1,154 million bus, up 136 million bus, or 13%, from 1,018 million bus projected in September but down 470 million bus, or 29%, from the upwardly revised 1,624 million bus this year.

Total U.S. corn supply in 2008-09 was projected at 13,839 million bus, up 176 million bus from September but down 557 million bus, or 4%, from 14,396 million bus the previous year. Total use was projected at 12,685 million bus in 2008-09, up 40 million bus from September but down 86 million bus from 2007-08. Feed and residual use was projected at 5,335 million bus, up 150 million bus from September due to "larger supplies, reduced availability of distillers grains and sharply lower prices," the U.S.D.A. said.

Food, seed and industrial use were projected at 5,335 million bus, down 100 million bus from September due to a projected decrease of the same amount in the use of corn for ethanol, to 4,000 million bus, because "reduced gasoline consumption is expected to slow the expansion of blending modestly over the coming months." Exports were unchanged from a month earlier at 2,000 million bus.

World 2008-09 corn production was projected at 785.25 million tonnes, up 2.3 million tonnes from September but down 5.7 million tonnes from 2007-08. Ending stocks were projected at 107.8 million tonnes, down 2.2 million tonnes from September and down 15.1 million tonnes from 2007-08.

Projected carryover of soybeans on Sept. 1, 2009, was 220 million bus, up 85 million bus, or 63%, from September and up 15 million bus, or 7%, from the upwardly revised 205 million bus in 2008.

Total U.S. soybean supply in 2008-09 was projected at 3,195 million bus, up 111 million bus from September but down 65 million bus from 2007-08. Projected 2008-09 crushings were 1,760 million bus, down 25 million bus from September, while exports were projected at 1,050 million bus, up 50 million bus from a month earlier.

Global 2008-09 soybean production was projected at 239.43 million tonnes, up 1.4 million tonnes from September and up 18.7 million tonnes from 2007-08. Ending stocks were projected at 55.24 million tonnes, up 4 million tonnes from September and up 2.6 million tonnes from the previous year.

Expected wheat carryover on June 1, 2009, was projected at 601 million bus, up 27 million bus, or 5%, from 574 million bus in September and up 295 million bus, or 96%, from 306 million bus in 2008.

Total U.S. wheat supply was projected at 2,905 million bus, up 37 million bus from September and up 270 million bus from 2007-08. Total use in 2008-09 was projected at 2,304 million bus, up 10 million bus from September but down 26 million bus from a year earlier. Feed and residual use were projected at 260 million bus, up 10 million bus from September and up 230 million bus from 2007-08. Unchanged from September were food use at 960 million bus, seed use at 84 million bus and exports at 1,000 million bus in 2008-09.

Global 2008-09 wheat production was projected record large at 680.2 million tonnes, up 3.9 million tonnes from September and up 11% from 610.9 million tonnes in 2007-08. Ending stocks were projected at 144.4 million tonnes, up 4.5 million tonnes from September and up 24.6 million tonnes, or 20%, from the previous year.

Global rice production was projected at a record 433.2 million tonnes, up 1.3 million tonnes from September due to increases in Bangladesh, Burma, Pakistan and several African nations more than offsetting lower production in Australia and the United States, the U.S.D.A. said.

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