U.S.D.A. raises fiscal 2010 ag export forecast
December 8, 2009
by Jay Sjerven
The Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for the value of U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year 2010 to $98 billion, up $1 billion from the initial projection made in August and compared with exports of $96.6 billion in fiscal 2009. If the revised forecast stands, the value of U.S. exports in the current fiscal year would be the second-highest on record after $115.3 billion in exports during fiscal 2008. “A recovering global economy is expected to boost demand for U.S. high-value products,” the U.S.D.A. said. Export forecasts were raised for grains and feeds (up $600 million from the August forecast); livestock, poultry and dairy (up $200 million); oilseeds and products (up $300 million); and cotton (up $200 million). These increases offset a lower forecast for horticulture products, down $500 million from August, to $21.5 billion.
The U.S.D.A. projected the value of U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 2010 at $77.5 billion, down $4.5 billion from the initial projection of $82 billion made in August but up $4.1 billion from $73.4 billion during fiscal 2009. Import forecasts for fiscal 2010 were lowered for livestock, dairy and poultry (down $700 million from the August forecast); grains and feed (down $600 million); oilseeds and products (down $600 million); horticulture products (down $1.1 billion); and sugar and tropical products (down $1.5 billion).
The U.S. agricultural trade surplus in fiscal 2010 was forecast at $20.5 billion, up $5.5 billion from the August forecast but down from $23.2 billion in fiscal 2009 and a record $36 billion in fiscal 2008.