WASHINGTON —The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Nov. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report estimated U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2017, at 1,834,000 short tons, raw value, up 102,294 tons, or 6%, from its October estimate. Carryover on Oct. 1, 2018, was forecast at 1,775,000 tons, up 78,259 tons, or 5%, from October but down 59,000 tons, or 3%, from 2017.
The 2016-17 (fiscal 2017) ending stocks-to-use ratio was revised up to 14.8% from 13.9% in October and the 2017-18 (fiscal 2018) ratio was raised to 14.1% from 13.3% last month.
Numerous adjustments to 2017 estimates were based on full fiscal year data published by the U.S.D.A. in its Sweetener Market Data report and by Mexico’s CONADESUCA in its National Balance Report, the U.S.D.A. said.
Total 2017 supply was estimated at 14,268,000 tons, up 81,000 tons from October based on a 79,000-ton increase in beet sugar production at 5,101,000 tons, a 4,000-ton reduction in cane sugar production at 3,866,000 tons, and a 6,000-ton increase in imports to 3,247,000 tons (although imports from Mexico were reduced 2,000 tons to 1,204,000 tons).
Beet sugar production for 2017 was raised as early-harvested new-crop beets resulted in record high production in September, the U.S.D.A. said.
Total sugar use in 2017 was estimated at 12,434,000 tons, down 21,000 tons from October based on exports at 95,000 tons, down 5,000 tons, deliveries for food at 12,130,000 tons, down 70,411 tons, other deliveries at 156,000 tons, up 1,000 tons, and miscellaneous at 53,000 tons, up from zero in October.
The reduction in deliveries for human consumption in 2017 was “likely due to stronger-than-expected hurricane-related operational and shipping disruptions in the final months of 2016-17,” the U.S.D.A. said.
The 2018 carryover was raised as higher beginning stocks and lower use more than offset lower beet sugar production and lower imports.
Total supply in 2018 was forecast at 14,380,000 tons, down 44,741 tons from October based on beet sugar outturn at 4,950,000 tons, down 27,000 tons, and imports at 3,710,000 tons, down 120,000 tons (including a 25,000-ton decrease in tariff-rate quota at 1,756,000 tons and a 95,000-ton decrease in imports from Mexico at 1,694,000 tons) partially offset by a 102,000-ton increase in beginning stocks. Cane sugar production was forecast at 3,886,000 tons, unchanged from October, including Florida at 2,036,000 tons, also unchanged.
Sugar use in 2018 was forecast at 12,605,000 tons, down 123,000 tons from October based on a like decrease in deliveries for food forecast at 12,400,000 tons.
For Mexico, 2016-17 sugar imports were forecast at 118,000 tonnes, actual weight, down 7,000 tonnes from October, domestic use at 4,896,000 tonnes, up 38,000 tonnes, exports at 1,214,000 tonnes, down 1,000 tonnes, and ending stocks at 1,002,000 tonnes, down 43,749 tonnes.
For 2017-18, Mexico’s sugar imports were forecast at 95,000 tonnes, up 20,000 tonnes from October, domestic use at 4,912,000 tonnes, up 48,000 tonnes, exports at 1,460,000 tonnes, down 81,000 tonnes, and ending stocks at 825,000 tonnes, up 9,000 tonnes. Production estimated at 5,957,000 tonnes for 2016/17 and forecast at 6,100,000 tonnes for 2017-18 were unchanged from October.