WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Dec. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report raised its projection for 2018 U.S. wheat carryover by 3% from its November forecast due to a reduction in export estimates, raised its forecast for soybean carryover due to reduced exports and lowered its corn carryover based on increased use of corn for ethanol.
The U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of all wheat on June 1, 2018, at 960 million bus, up 25 million bus from its November forecast at 935 million bus but down 19% from 1,181 million bus in 2017. That change comes from a 25-million-bu reduction in projected exports. All other 2017-18 wheat forecasts were unchanged, as were 2016-17 estimates with 2017 carryover at 1,181 million bus.
“This reduction is primarily attributed to heightened Canadian competition expected from its increased exportable supplies,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Canada and the United States compete in several of the same markets in Latin America and East Asia.”
Slight changes were made in wheat-by-class carryover forecasts for 2018 with hard red winter at 470 million bus, up 9 million from November on a 10-million-bu forecast decrease in 2017-18 exports at 405 million bus and a 1-million-bu decline in total supply. Hard red spring carryover on June 1, 2018, was forecast at 167 million bus, up 10 million bus from November based on a like decrease in exports, forecast at 255 million bus. Soft red winter carryover was forecast at 230 million bus, up 8 million bus on a 5-million-bu decrease in exports and a 3-million-bu increase in total supply. White wheat carryover was forecast at 65 million bus, down 2 million bus from November due to a like decrease in total supply. Durum carryover was unchanged at 28 million bus.
Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2018, was forecast at 445 million bus, up 20 million bus from November based on a 5-million-bu increase in seed use more than offset by a 25-million-bu reduction in exports at 2,225 million bus. All other 2017-18 forecasts and 2016-17 estimates were unchanged with 2017 carryover at 301 million bus.
Corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2018, was forecast at 2,437 million bus, down 50 million bus, or 2%, from November but up 6% from 2,295 million bus in 2017. The decrease from November resulted from a 50-million-bu increase in use of corn for ethanol.
“Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 50 million bus, based on increased sorghum export commitments, and the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-products Production report, which estimated a lower-than-expected amount of sorghum used to produce ethanol during October,” the U.S.D.A. said.Wheat, corn and the soybean complex futures closed lower the day of the report.