WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its June 12 Crop Production report forecast 2018 U.S. winter wheat outturn at 1,198 million bus, up 6,174,000 bus, or 0.5%, from 1,192 million bus in May but down 71,721,000 bus, or 6%, from 1,269 million bus in 2017. The increase from May resulted from a slight increase in average yield, estimated at 48.4 bus per acre, up 0.3 bu from May but down 2.1 bus from a year earlier, with harvested area unchanged from May at 24,769,000 acres. The U.S.D.A. production number was above the average trade expectation of 1,187 million bus.
Hard red winter wheat production was forecast at 650,373,000 bus, up 1% from May but down 13% from 2017, soft red winter at 315,500,000 bus, up slightly from May and up 8% from last year, and white winter at 231,843,000 bus, up 2% from both May and from a year ago. The 2018 white winter wheat consisted of 21,829,000 bus of hard white and 210,014,000 bus of soft white.
Production estimates for Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas all were unchanged from May. The U.S.D.A. raised production forecasts from May in 10 of the 25 top producing states, lowered forecasts in nine states and left six states unchanged.
In its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the U.S.D.A. projected U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2019, at 946 million bus, down 9 million bus from the May forecast and down 134 million bus, or 12%, from 1,080 million bus in 2018, which was raised 10 million bus from May due to a like decrease in exports, estimated at 900 million bus. Exports for 2018-19 were forecast at 950 million bus, up 25 million bus from the May forecast “on tightening Russian supplies,” and up 50 million bus from 2017-18.
The U.S.D.A. forecast 2018-19 Russian wheat production at 68.5 million tonnes, down 3.5 million tonnes, or 5%, from the May forecast, and down 16.49 million tonnes, or 19%, from 2017-18. Exports of wheat by Russia were forecast at 35 million tonnes, down 1.5 million tonnes from May and down 5.5 million tonnes from 2017-18.
U.S. all-wheat production in 2018 was forecast at 1,827 million bus, up 6 million bus from the May forecast, reflecting a like increase in winter wheat production, and up 86 million bus, or 5%, from 1,741 million bus in 2017.
The average price for wheat paid to U.S. farmers was estimated at $4.75 per bu in 2017-18, up 5c from May, and for 2018-19 was forecast to range between $4.60 and $5.60 per bu, up 10c from the May forecast.
The U.S.D.A. projected the carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2019, at 1,577 million bus, down 105 million bus, or 6%, from the May forecast and down 525 million bus, or 25%, from 2,102 million bus forecast for 2018, which was lowered 80 million bus from May based on 5 million bus lower imports at 45 million bus, and 75 million bus higher exports at 2,300 million bus. For 2018-19, forecast production was unchanged from May at 14,040 million bus, with total supply down 80 million bus at 16,192 million bus based on lower beginning stocks. Total use was raised 25 million bus from May to 14,615 million bus, based on a 25-million-bu reduction in feed and residual use, forecast at 5,350 million bus, a 50-million-bu increase in use for ethanol, forecast at 5,675 million bus, with exports unchanged at 2,100 million bus. The average price of corn paid to farmers in 2018-19 was forecast to range between $3.40 and $4.40 per bu, up 10c from May and compared with $3.25 to $3.55 per bu forecast for 2017-18.
The U.S.D.A. projected U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2019, at 385 million bus, down 30 million bus, or 7%, from the May forecast and down 120 million bus, or 24%, from 505 million bus forecast for 2018, which was lowered 25 million bus from May based on a like increase in 2017-18 soybean crush, forecast at a record 2,015 million bus. For 2018-19, crush was raised 5 million bus from May to 2,000 million bus, but was down 15 million bus from 2017-18. Forecast exports were unchanged for both years at 2,065 million bus for 2017-18 and 2,290 million bus for 2018-19. The average price of soybeans paid to farmers in 2018-19 was forecast at $8.75 to $11.25 per bu, unchanged from May, compared with $9.40 per bu in 2017-18, up 5c from May.
The U.S.D.A. projected 2019 carryover numbers were below average pre-report trade expectations of 957 million bus for wheat, 1,642 million bus for corn and 435 million bus for soybeans.
Wheat, corn, soybean and soybean meal futures traded higher while soybean oil traded lower after the U.S.D.A. reports.