WASHINGTON — Standing out in 2018-19 grain and oilseed forecasts in the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report issued Dec. 11 were higher projections for wheat and corn ending stocks. The 2018-19 supply-and-demand forecasts for soybeans were unchanged from November.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2019, by 25 million bus, to 974 million bus. While a large number, the carryover forecast still was down 125 million bus, or 11%, from 1,099 million bus in 2018 and compared with 1,181 million bus in 2017. The recent five-year average wheat carryover was 920 million bus.
The hike in the carryover forecast was tied to a 25-million-bu reduction in the U.S.D.A.’s forecast for 2018-19 wheat exports to 1,000 million bus. The U.S.D.A. in commentary accompanying the supply-and-demand forecasts said, “Wheat exports are lowered 25 million bus to 1 billion with all the reduction in hard red winter on historically low exports for this class in the first half of the 2018-19 marketing year.”
All-wheat supply estimates and forecasts for 2018-19 were unchanged with total supply remaining at 3,123 million bus, up 45 million bus from 2017-18.
With the exception of the lower export forecast, all-wheat use projections for 2018-19 were unchanged from November at 970 million bus for food, 69 million bus for seed, and 110 million bus for feed and residual.
The U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2019, at 1,781 million bus, up 45 million bus from the November projection at 1,736 million bus but down 359 million bus, or 17%, from 2,140 million bus in 2018. The 2018-19 corn supply forecast was lowered 5 million bus, to 16,811 million bus, as imports were lowered 5 million bus, to 45 million.
Domestic use of corn in 2018-19 was forecast at 12,580 million bus, down 50 million bus from the November outlook and compared with 12,355 million bus in 2017-18. The use of corn in manufacturing ethanol was forecast at 5,600 million bus, down 50 million bus from the November projection and down 5 million bus from 2017-18. The U.S.D.A. lowered its forecast for corn used for ethanol based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of November.
“These data imply corn used for ethanol during the September-to-November quarter declined relative to the prior year for the first time since 2012,” the U.S.D.A. said.
Corn exports in 2018-19 were forecast at 2,450 million bus, unchanged from November but up 12 million bus from the 2017-18 outgo of 2,438 million bus.
Food and residual use of corn in 2018-19 was forecast at 5,500 million bus, unchanged from November and up 4% from 5,298 million bus in 2017-18.
The U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of soybeans on Sept. 1, 2019, at 955 million bus, unchanged from November and up 517 million bus, or 118%, from 438 million bus in 2018. All supply forecasts were unchanged for 2018-19 with the carry-in estimated at 438 million bus, production at 4,600 million bus and imports at 25 million for a total supply of 5,063 million bus. Soybean imports were forecast at 25 million bus, up 3 million from 2017-18.
All demand forecasts for 2018-19 also were unchanged from November. The soybean crush was forecast at 2,080 million bus, up 25 million bus from 2017-18. Seed use was forecast at 96 million bus, down 8 million bus from the previous year. Residual use was forecast at 32 million bus, up 24 million from 2017-18. Soybean exports were forecast at 1,900 million bus, down 229 million bus, or 11%, from 2,129 million bus in 2017-18.