WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Dec. 11 raised its forecast for 2018-19 world wheat ending stocks to 268.10 million tonnes, up 1.39 million tonnes from the November projection but down 11.84 million tonnes, or 4%, from a record 279.94 million tonnes in 2017-18. The projected ending stocks would be the second-largest on record following the 2017-18 ending stocks.

The U.S.D.A. forecast 2018-19 world wheat production at 733.41 million tonnes, down 0.1 million tonnes from the November outlook and down 29.65 million tonnes, or 4%, from a record 763.06 million tonnes in 2017-18. The U.S.D.A. lowered its forecast for the Australian crop by 0.5 million tonnes, to 17 million tonnes, based on the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences. The U.S.D.A. raised its estimate for the 2018 Canadian crop to 31.8 million tonnes from 31.5 million tonnes in November, based on the latest estimate from Statistics Canada.

World wheat consumption in 2018-19 was forecast at a record 745.25 million tonnes, down 0.55 million tonnes from the November projection but up 1.09 million tonnes from 744.16 million tonnes in 2017-18, the current record. Domestic feed use of wheat in 2018-19 was forecast at 141.96 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes from the November outlook but down 5.69 million tonnes from 2017-18.

The U.S.D.A. forecast world wheat exports in 2018-19 at 177.36 million tonnes, down 1.43 million tonnes from the November projection and down 3.87 million tonnes, or 2%, from 181.23 million tonnes in 2017-18.

The U.S.D.A. lowered its export forecasts for the United States, Australia and the European Union, but raised its export forecast for Russia.

The U.S.D.A. forecast U.S. wheat exports in 2018-19 at 27.22 million tonnes, down 0.68 million tonnes from November but up 2.7 million tonnes, or 11%, from 24.52 million tonnes in 2017-18. Australian wheat exports in 2018-19 were forecast at 10.5 million tonnes, down 1 million tonnes from the November outlook and down 3.5 million tonnes, or 25%, from 14 million tonnes in 2017-18.

The U.S.D.A. forecast E.U. wheat exports in 2018-19 at 22 million tonnes, down 1 million tonnes from November and down 1.29 million tonnes from 23.29 million tonnes in 2017-18.

In contrast, the U.S.D.A. raised by 1 million tonnes its forecast for Russian wheat exports in 2018-19 to 36.5 million tonnes, down 4.92 million tonnes, or 12%, from a record outgo of 41.42 million tonnes in 2017-18. The U.S.D.A. commented, “Russia and other Black Sea suppliers continue to displace E.U. and U.S. exports in several markets in the first half of 2018-19 but are expected to be less competitive in the second half based on reduced exportable supplies.”