WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its July 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, forecast the carryover of U.S. sugar on Oct. 1, 2019, (2018-19 ending stocks) at 1,761,000 short tons, raw value, up 235,818 tons, or 15%, from its June forecast based on higher tariff rate quota imports and higher imports from Mexico.
The U.S.D.A. forecast the 2018-19 ending stocks-to-use ratio at 14.3%, up sharply from 12.4% forecast in June. A bump in ending stocks and in the S.-T.-U. ratio was expected after the U.S.D.A. acted in June to increase the U.S. sugar supply by about 150,000 tons through a T.R.Q. reallocation and an increase in Mexico’s export limit.
U.S. beet sugar production was forecast at 4,920,000 tons in 2018-19, unchanged from June, with cane sugar outturn forecast at 4,028,000 tons, down 1,000 tons due to a like decrease in Texas.
Imports were forecast at 3,091,000 tons, up 216,138 tons, or 7.5%, from June based on T.R.Q. imports at 1,604,000 tons, up 66,138 tons, other program imports at 400,000 tons, up 50,000 tons, and imports from Mexico at 997,000 tons, up 100,000 tons. High-tier imports were left unchanged from June at 90,000 tons.
Forecast domestic deliveries were forecast at 12,250,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from June based on a like decrease in the “other” category, forecast at 125,000 tons. Deliveries for food were unchanged at 12,125,000 tons (up 0.6% from 2017-18). Exports also were unchanged at 35,000 tons.
U.S. sugar ending stocks for 2019-20 were forecast at 1,663,000 tons, up 135,000 tons, or 9%, from the June forecast but down 98,000 tons, or 6%, from 2018-19. The ending S.-T.-U. ratio was projected at 13.5%, up from 12.4% as the June projection.
U.S. sugar production in 2019-20 was forecast at 9,260,000 tons, up 121,080 tons from the June forecast and up 313,000 tons, or 3.5%, from 2018-19. Beet sugar production for 2019-20 (from the 2019 crop) was projected at 5,175,000 tons, up 21,000 tons from June, with cane sugar at 4,085,000 tons, up 100,000 tons due to a like increase in Louisiana’s production.
Total imports in 2019-20 were forecast at 2,957,000 tons, down 261,872 tons, or 8%, from the June forecast, as a 449,263-ton reduction in imports from Mexico, forecast at 969,000 tons, more than offset a 187,393-ton increase in T.R.Q. imports, based on the announcement of the specialty sugar T.R.Q. Total T.R.Q. imports were projected at 1,568,000 tons for 2019-20.
Total supply in 2019-20 was forecast at 13,978,000 tons, up 95,027 tons from June but down 68,000 tons from 2018-19.
The U.S.D.A. forecast domestic deliveries of sugar in 2019-20 at 12,280,000 tons, including deliveries for food at 12,175,000 tons, unchanged from June but up 0.4% from 2018-19, and “other” at 105,000 tons, down 40,000 tons from June. Exports were unchanged at 35,000 tons.
The U.S.D.A raised its Mexican sugar production forecasts for both this year and next year. Production in 2018-19 was forecast at 6,425,000 tonnes, actual weight, up 25,000 tonnes from June, and 2019-20 production was projected at 6,248,000 tonnes, up 65,000 tonnes from June but down 177,000 tonnes from the current year.