WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, forecast the carryover of U.S. sugar on Oct. 1, 2019, (2018-19 ending stocks) at 1,775,000 short tons, raw value, up 14,000 tons from its July forecast as higher beet sugar production more than offset higher deliveries for food.
The U.S.D.A. forecast the 2018-19 ending stocks-to-use ratio at 14.4%, up slightly from 14.3% forecast in July.
U.S. beet sugar production was forecast at 5,008,000 tons in 2018-19, up 88,653 tons from July, with cane sugar unchanged at 4,028,000 tons.
Imports were forecast at 3,091,000 tons, unchanged from July after June increases in the raw sugar tariff rate quota and imports from Mexico were reflected in the July WASDE. Imports from Mexico were unchanged from July at 997,000 tons, compared with 1,223,000 tons in 2017-18.
Domestic deliveries were forecast at 12,325,000 tons, up 75,000 tons from July based on a like increase in deliveries for food, forecast at 12,200,000 tons.
“Through June, however, deliveries by domestic processors have remained relatively flat for the past two years,” the U.S.D.A. said.
U.S. sugar ending stocks for 2019-20 were forecast at 1,699,000 tons, up 36,000 tons, or 2.2%, from the July forecast but down 76,000 tons, or 4.3%, from 2018-19. The ending S.-T.-U. ratio was projected at 13.7%, up from 13.5% in July.
U.S. sugar production in 2019-20 was forecast at 9,308,000 tons, up 48,000 tons from the July forecast and up 272,000 tons, or 3%, from 2018-19. Beet sugar production for 2019-20 was projected at 5,179,000 tons, up 4,000 tons from July, with cane sugar at 4,129,000 tons, up 44,603 tons due to a like increase in Florida’s production.
Total imports in 2019-20 were forecast at 2,981,000 tons, up 24,302 tons from the July forecast due to a like increase in T.R.Q. imports, forecast at 1,593,000 tons (related to the extension to Oct. 15 for 2018-19 raw sugar T.R.Q. imports to enter the United States). Imports from Mexico were unchanged from July at 969,000 tons.
Total supply in 2019-20 was forecast at 14,064,000 tons, up 86,000 tons from July but down 71,000 tons from 2018-19.
The U.S.D.A. forecast domestic deliveries of sugar in 2019-20 at 12,330,000 tons, including deliveries for food at 12,225,000 tons, both up 50,000 tons from July, with deliveries for food up 0.2% from 2018-19.
“Human consumption deliveries for 2019-20 are increased in line but only by 50,000 short tons, raw value, in a changing sugar and sweeteners’ deliveries environment as evidenced by flat to declining total and per capita caloric sweeteners and refined sugar for calendar years 2016-18,” the U.S.D.A. said.
The U.S.D.A left forecasts for 2018-19 and 2019-20 for Mexico unchanged from July.