WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Dec. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report projected the carryover of all wheat on June 1, 2020, at 974 million bus, down 40 million bus, or 3.9%, from the November projection, down 106 million bus, or 10%, from 1,080 million bus in 2019 and the lowest in five years. Corn and soybean 2020 carryover forecasts were unchanged from November.
The lower all wheat carryover was based on projected lower imports and higher exports for 2019-20. Imports were forecast at 105 million bus (the lowest in nine years), down 15 million bus from November, including hard red spring wheat down 5 million bus and durum down 10 million bus. Exports were forecast at 975 million bus, up 25 million bus from November “on a strong pace to date, more competitive prices and reduced supplies from several major competitors,” the U.S.D.A. said. Unchanged from November were beginning stocks at 1,080 million bus, production at 1,920 million bus, food use of wheat at 955 million bus, seed use at 61 million bus and feed and residual use at 140 million bus. The average of all wheat paid to farmers in 2019-20 was projected at $4.55 a bu, down 5c from November and down 61c from $5.16 per bu in 2018-19.
On a by-class basis, hard red winter wheat carryover on June 1, 2020, was forecast at 483 million bus, down 10 million bus from November, hard red spring at 269 million bus, down 10 million bus, soft red winter at 111 million bus, unchanged, white wheat at 85 million bus, unchanged, and durum at 26 million bus, down 20 million bus.
U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2020, was projected at 1,910 million bus, unchanged from November with all supply-and-use estimates also unchanged.
U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2020, was projected at 475 million bus, unchanged, as were other supply-and-use forecasts. The average price of soybeans was projected at $8.85 a bu, down 5c from November but up 37c from 2018-19.
The U.S.D.A. does not issue updated corn and soybean production forecasts in December. The next revisions will be in the annual report in January.