WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture on May 12 said the outlook for corn in 2020-21 was for record high production and domestic use, greater exports and larger ending stocks than forecast for the current year. The soybean outlook for 2020-21 outlook was for larger supplies and higher crush and exports, but smaller ending stocks compared with 2019-20.
The USDA forecast the carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2021, at 3,318 million bus, up 1,220 million bus, or 58%, from 2,098 million bus as the projection for the current year. The 2021 corn carryover as forecast would be the largest since 4,259 million bus in 1988.
The 2020 corn crop was projected at a record 15,995 million bus, up 2,332 million bus, or 17%, from 13,663 million bus in 2019. The production forecast was based on a projected harvested area at 89.6 million acres (based on a planted area forecast at 97 million acres in the Prospective Plantings report issued at the end of March and historical abandonment) and a weather-adjusted trendline yield at 178.5 bus per acre.
The total corn supply in 2020-21 was forecast at a record 18,118 million bus, up 2,190 million bus, or 14%, from 15,928 million bus in 2019-20.
The USDA projected domestic use of corn in 2020-21 at a record 12,650 million bus, up 595 million bus, or 5%, from a forecast 12,055 million bus in 2019-20. Feed and residual use of corn in 2020-21 was forecast at 6,050 million bus, up 350 million bus from a projected 5,700 million bus in the current year.
Food, seed and industrial use of corn in 2020-21 was projected at 6,600 million bus, up 245 million bus, or 4%, from 6,355 million bus as the 2019-20 forecast. Of that total, corn use for ethanol in 2020-21 was projected at 5,200 million bus, up 250 million bus from the downwardly revised (by 100 million bus) 4,950 million bus as the 2019-20 forecast.
The USDA commented, “Corn used for ethanol is projected to increase from the 2019-20 COVID-19-reduced levels, based on expectations for a rebound in US motor gasoline consumption.”
The USDA projected corn exports in 2020-21 at 2,150 million bus, up 375 million bus, or 21%, from the forecast 1,775 million bus in the current year. The USDA said, “US market share is expected to increase from the 2019-20 multi-year low but remains below the average level seen during 2015-16 to 2019-20 with expected competition from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine.”
The USDA projected the 2020-21 US corn stocks-to-use ratio at 22.4%, the highest since 1992-93.
“With larger stocks relative to use, the season average farm price is projected at $3.20 per bu, down 40¢ from 2019-20 and the lowest since 2006-07,” the USDA said.
The USDA projected the carryover of soybeans on Sept. 1, 2021, at 405 million bus, down 175 million bus, or 30%, from 580 million bus as forecast for 2019-20. As forecast, the 2021 carryover would be the smallest since 302 million bus in 2017.
The USDA forecast the 2020 soybean crop at 4,125 million bus, up 568 million bus, or 16%, from 3,557 million bus in 2019 and compared with 4,428 million bus in 2018.
The 2020-21 soybean supply was forecast at 4,720 million bus, up 239 million bus, or 5%, from 4,481 million bus in 2019-20 and compared with 4,880 million bus in 2018-19.
The USDA forecast the soybean crush in 2020-21 at 2,130 million bus, up 5 million bus from the projection for the current year.
Soybean exports in 2020-21 were projected at 2,050 million bus, up 375 million bus, or 22%, from a forecast 1,675 million bus in 2019-20. It should be noted the forecast for 2019-20 exports was lowered 100 million bus from the April outlook.
Total soybean disappearance in 2020-21 was projected at 4,315 million bus, up 414 million bus, or 11%, from 3,901 million bus as forecast for 2019-20.
The USDA forecast the average farm price of soybeans in 2020-21 at $8.20 a bu, down 30¢ from the projection for the current year at $8.50 a bu.