WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2021, to 925 million bus, up 16 million bus from the May projection but down 58 million bus, or 6%, from 983 million bus in 2020.
The USDA forecast wheat production in 2020 at 1,877 million bus, up 11 million bus from the May outlook but down 43 million bus, or 2%, from 1,920 million bus in 2019. In commentary accompanying the supply-and-demand forecasts, the USDA said, “Winter wheat production is forecast up 11 million bus to 1,266 million with increases in hard red winter and white winter more than offsetting a small decrease for soft red winter.”
The USDA left unchanged from May its 2020-21 wheat import forecast at 140 million bus. The total US wheat supply in 2020-21 was projected at 3,000 million bus, up 16 million bus from the May forecast because of the higher production outlook and a 5-million-bu increase in the estimated beginning stocks.
The USDA left unchanged from May all wheat demand forecasts for 2020-21, including food use at 964 million bus, seed use at 61 million bus, feed and residual use at 100 million bus and exports at 950 million bus. The USDA’s estimate for 2019-20 wheat exports was 965 million bus.