WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture, in its April 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, made only minor changes from March in its US sugar supply-and-demand forecasts, leaving the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 15.1% for the current 2020-21 marketing year.
Domestic production in 2020-21 was forecast at 9,344,000 tons, down 30,000 tons due to a like decline in the forecast for Florida cane sugar at 2,170,000 tons. Production was unchanged for Louisiana at 1,949,000 tons and for Texas at 132,000 tons. Beet sugar production was unchanged from March at 5,093,000 tons, with total cane sugar down 30,000 tons at 4,251,000 tons.
The lower domestic sugar production forecast was offset by a like increase of 30,000 tons in high-tier imports, forecast at 200,000 tons, reflecting “the strong pace set in the first half of the fiscal year and on oversubscribed imports of organic sugar beyond the remaining tranche that adds to sugar already being stored in bonded warehouses,” the USDA said.
Other import forecasts were unchanged from March with tariff-rate quota at 1,721,000 tons, Mexico at 931,000 tons, and other program imports at 300,000 tons.
“The USDA has been unable to receive confirmation of media reports of decreased export potential in certain raw sugar TRQ countries that would imply an increase in the raw sugar TRQ shortfall,” the USDA said.
Total sugar supply was unchanged from March at 14,113,000 tons.
There were no changes from March in 2020-21 delivery forecasts, including deliveries for food at 12,125,000 tons.
Ending stocks were unchanged from March at 1,848,000 tons, up 230,000 tons from 1,618,000 tons in 2019-20.
There were no revisions to any of the 2019-20 estimates.
The USDA also made no changes from March to any of the 2020-21 forecasts or 2019-20 estimates for Mexico.