WASHINGTON — A panel of soft wheat millers addressing the virtual Spring Conference of the North American Millers’ Association on April 20 forecast soft red winter wheat production in the United States in 2021 at 332,701,000 bus, up 66,466,000 bus, or 25%, from 266,235,000 bus in 2020 and compared with 286 million bus as the recent five-year average outturn.
Grover Van Hoose, merchandising manager, grain, The Mennel Milling Co., was panel chairman and gave the forecast for the Central states region. Mr. Van Hoose was joined by Shawn Branstetter, wheat merchandiser, The Andersons, Inc., who provided the forecast for the Mid-Atlantic states; Carl Schwinke, vice president, grain supply, Siemer Milling Co., who shared his projections for the Midwest crop; Sam Doering, soft red winter wheat director, Ardent Mills, LP, who reported on the Southeast; and Mark Rossol, manager, soft wheat, The Andersons, who covered the states of the South, the Mississippi Delta and Southwest.
The panelists forecast production to be higher than in 2020 in each of the major soft red winter wheat regions.
Mr. Van Hoose forecast soft red winter wheat production in the Central states of Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin at 109,154,000 bus, up 27,573,000 bus, or 34%, from 81,581,000 bus in 2020. Mr. Van Hoose forecast production to be higher in each state.
Mr. Schwinke forecast the outturn in the Midwest states of Illinois, Kentucky and Missouri at 103,887,000 bus, up 24,396,000 bus, or 31%, from 79,491,000 bus in 2020. As in the Central states, each state in the Midwest was forecast to see a significant increase in production.
Mr. Branstetter forecast production in the Mid-Atlantic states — Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania — at 38,145,000 bus, up 1,198,000 bus, or 3%, from 36,947,000 bus last year.
Mr. Doering projected the soft red winter wheat crop in the Southeast — North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia — at 35,808,000 bus, up 2,241,000 bus, or 7%, from 33,567,000 bus in 2020.
Mr. Rossol projected production across the South, the Mississippi Delta and Southwest — Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas — at 45,707,000 bus, up 13,930,000 bus, or 44%, from 31,777,000 bus in 2020.
The panelists also forecast soft white winter wheat production nationwide in 2021 at 249,479,000 bus, up 15,511,000 bus, or 7%, from 233,968,000 bus in 2020.
Most soft white wheat is grown in the Pacific Northwest. Mr. Doering projected the soft white winter wheat crop in that region at 236,948,000 bus, up 17,843,000 bus, or 8%, from 219,105,000 bus in 2020.