WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report issued June 10 forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2022, at 770 million bus, down 4 million bus from the May outlook and down 82 million bus, or 10%, from a downwardly revised 852 million bus in 2020-21. The 2021 carryover was lowered 20 million bus as estimated 2020-21 wheat exports were raised 20 million bus to 985 million bus.
As forecast, the 2022 wheat carryover would be the smallest since 752 million bus in 2015 and compare with 1,073 million bus as the recent five-year average carryover.
The USDA forecast all-wheat production in 2021 at 1,898 million bus, up 26 million bus from the May projection and up 72 million bus from 1,826 million bus in 2021. Lower white winter wheat production was expected to be more than offset by higher production of hard red winter and soft red winter wheat. The recent five-year average all-wheat outturn was 1,939 million bus.
With 2020-21 wheat imports forecast at 125 million bus, the USDA projected the US wheat supply in 2021-22 at 2,875 million bus, up 6 million bus from the May outlook but down 84 million bus from 2,959 million bus in 2020-21.
The only change from May on the demand side for 2021-22 was a 10-million-bu increase in forecast feed and residual use to 180 million bus. Rallying corn prices and high millfeed values have raised expectations that wheat will be priced competitively in the summer months, the USDA said. Food use of wheat in 2021-22 was forecast unchanged from May at 963 million bus, seed use was projected unchanged at 62 million bus, and exports were forecast unchanged at 900 million bus.