WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture made only minor changes from May in its June 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, lowering total supply for both this year and next year by 50,000 short tons, raw value.
For the current 2020-21 marketing year, the USDA forecast “other program” sugar imports at 250,000 tons, down 50,000 tons from May, a move expected by some in the trade.
“Re-export imports for 2020-21 are estimated at 250,000 tons and are lowered on the basis of the pace to date,” the USDA said.
As a result, total supply was lowered a like amount to 14,020,000 tons. With no changes in the forecast use of sugar for the current year, ending stocks likewise were lowered 50,000 tons to 1,755,000 tons, though still up 137,000 tons from 2019-20. The ending stocks-to-use ratio was forecast at 14.3%, down from 14.7% as the May forecast but up from 12.9% last year.
The only change in the USDA’s forecast for 2021-22 (which begins Oct. 1, 2021) was the carryover of the change in other program imports, reflected in lower beginning stocks at 1,755,000 tons. Forecasts for domestic production, imports and deliveries all were unchanged from May. Ending stocks in 2021-22 were forecast at 1,452,000 tons, down 50,000 tons from May and down 303,000 tons from 2020-21, but that will change in a few weeks when the 2021-22 specialty sugar tariff-rate quota is announced. Currently, TRQ imports are forecast at World Trade Organization and free trade agreement minimums. The ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2021-22 was forecast at 11.84%, down from 12.2% in May.
Mexico’s 2020-21 sugar production was forecast at 5,700,000 tonnes, actual weight, down 125,000 tonnes from May “due to a campaign cut short by an early onset of seasonal rains in several regional production areas,” the USDA said.
“Exports other than those to the United States under the suspension agreement provisions are reduced by the 125,000-tonne amount, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 910,417 tonnes,” the USDA said.
There were no changes to 2021-22 forecasts for Mexico.