WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report issued July 12 forecast the carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2022, at 1,432 million bus, up 75 million bus from the June outlook and up 350 million bus, or 32%, from 1,082 million bus as the projection for 2021.
Standing out in the 2021-22 corn supply-and-demand forecasts was a 175-million-bu hike in projected corn production in 2021 to a record 15,165 million bus based on a 1-million-acre increase in the estimated harvested area to 84.5 million acres as reported in the annual Acreage report issued June 30 and a trendline yield at 179.5 bus per acre. The production forecast was up 983 million bus, or 7%, from the 2020 outturn at 14,182 million bus.
The total 2021-22 corn supply was forecast at 16,272 million bus, up 150 million bus from the June projection as the higher production forecast was partly offset by a 25-million-bu reduction in the forecast carry-in supply to 1,082 million bus.
Domestic disappearance in 2021-22 was forecast at 12,340 million bus, up 25 million bus from June as the feed and residual use projection was raised to 5,725 million bus, equal to the projected usage for 2020-21.
Food, seed and industrial use of corn in 2021-22 was projected at 6,615 million bus, unchanged from June but up 145 million bus from 2020-21. Included in the food, seed and industrial use category was a forecast 5,200 million bus for use in manufacturing ethanol and byproducts compared with 5,050 million bus in 2020-21.
Corn exports in 2021-22 were projected at 2,500 million bus, up 50 million bus from the June outlook but down 350 million bus from a record 2,850 million bus in 2020-21.
There were no adjustments from June in 2021-22 supply-and-demand forecasts for soybeans. The projected carryover of soybeans on Sept. 1, 2022, was 155 million, up 20 million bus from the forecast for the current year at 135 million bus.
The carry-in supply forecast for 2021-22 remained 135 million bus, and as there were no changes in the forecast harvested area and yields from the previous report, the production forecast held at 4,405 million bus, up 270 million bus from 4,135 million bus in 2020. It would be the third-largest soybean crop after a record 4,428 million bus in 2018 and 4,412 million bus in 2017.
The total soybean supply in 2021-22 was projected at 4,575 million bus, down 105 million bus from 2020-21.
The soybean crush in 2021-22 was forecast at 2,225 million bus, up 55 million bus from 2020-21.
Seed use of soybeans in 2021-22 was projected at 104 million bus versus 102 million bus in 2020-21.
Soybean exports in 2021-22 were forecast at 2,075 million bus compared with a record 2,270 million bus in 2020-21.
Total disappearance of soybeans in 2021-22 was projected at 4,420 million bus, down 125 million bus from 4,545 million bus in 2020-21.