WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2022, at 665 million bus, down 105 million bus from the June outlook and down 179 million bus, or 21%, from 844 million bus in 2021. The 2022 carryover as forecast would be the smallest since 2014.
The 2021-22 carry-in supply at 844 million bus was down 8 million from the previous estimate. But standing out in the wheat supply-and-demand forecasts was a 152-million-bu reduction in the USDA’s production projection for 2021 to 1,746 million bus because of the drought ravaging the spring wheat areas of the northern Plains and the Pacific Northwest; the winter wheat production estimate was raised.
The all-wheat production forecast for 2021 was down 80 million bus from 1,826 million bus as the 2020 outturn. It would be the smallest all-wheat crop since 1,741 million bus in 2017.
US wheat imports in 2021-22 were forecast at 145 million bus, up 20 million from June and up 45 million bus from 2020-21. The total US wheat supply in the current year was projected at 2,735 million bus, down 140 million bus from June and down 219 million bus, or 7%, from 2,954 million bus in 2020-21.
Domestic use of wheat in 2021-22 was forecast at 1,195 million bus, down 10 million from June but up 76 million bus from 2020-21. The adjustment from June was because of a 10-million-bu reduction in forecast feed and residual use of wheat to 170 million bus.
US wheat exports in 2021-22 were projected at 875 million bus, down 25 million bus from the June forecast and down 117 million bus, or 12%, from 992 million bus in 2020-21. Exports were forecast to be the lowest since 2015-16.
The USDA’s July WASDE contained the first 2021-22 forecasts by wheat class of the season. Only in the case of soft red winter wheat were 2021-22 ending stocks forecast to be higher than in 2020-21. Ending stocks for the other wheat classes were forecast to be lower in 2021-22 than in 2020-21.
Spring wheat supply-and-demand forecasts stood out. Because of the drought, the hard red spring wheat crop was forecast at 305 million bus, down 42% from 530 million bus in 2020. Spring wheat production was forecast to be the lowest since 181 million bus in 1988.
The carryover of hard red spring wheat on June 1, 2022, was forecast at 119 million bus, down 49% from 235 million bus in 2021. It would be the smallest hard red spring wheat carryover since 68 million bus in 2008.