WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its Dec. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report forecast the US carryover of wheat on June 1, 2022, at 598 million bus, up 15 million bus from the November projection but down 247 million bus, or 29%, from 845 million bus in 2021. Nearby wheat futures closed 13¢ to 17¢ a bu lower after the report.
The USDA lowered its forecast for the 2021-22 wheat supply by 5 million bus, to 2,601 million bus, due to a continually slowing import pace. The USDA said imports for hard red spring were weaker than expected. However, the projected season-average farm price was expected to be $7.05 per bu, making it the highest since 2012-13.
The forecast for domestic use was unchanged from November across all sectors at 1,163 million bus. Food use held steady at 962 million bus, up 1 million bus from last year’s estimate. Seed use held at 66 million bus, up from 64 million bus in 2020-21. Feed and residual use remained at 135 million bus, up 40 million bus from 2020-21’s estimate of 95 million bus.
The USDA projected 2021-22 wheat exports at 840 million bus, down 20 million bus from the November forecast and down 152 million bus, or 15%, from 992 million bus in 2020-21. This trend continued downward toward the smallest US wheat outgo of 778 million bus in 2015-16. Despite the decrease, the USDA anticipated that export prices would remain high, negatively impacting US export competitiveness.
World wheat supplies increased by 4.3 million tonnes, to 1,067.5 million tonnes. World consumption of feed and residual use for 2021-22 was forecast up 1.9 million tonnes, to 789.4 million tonnes, with the increase mainly coming from Australia and Russia. Projected global trade was projected to reach a record of at least 205.5 million tonnes with higher exports from Australia, the European Union, India and Ukraine. Regardless of the increases, the USDA said production levels for Russia and Canada remained significantly below last year. Despite world ending stock projections increasing 2.4 million tonnes, to 278.2 million tonnes, global stocks remained at a five-year low.
This month’s 2021-22 US corn supply and use outlook were unchanged from November with carryover on Sept. 1, 2022, at 1,493 million bus, up 257 million bus, or 17%, from the 2021 estimate.
US soybean supply and use projections also were unchanged from November with carryover on Sept. 1, 2022, at 340 million bus, up 84 million bus, or 25%, from the 2021 estimate of 256 million bus.