WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its Oct. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report forecast higher sugar supplies and ending stocks for 2022-23. Beginning stocks, domestic cane sugar production and tariff-rate quota imports for 2022-23 all were raised from September while deliveries were unchanged. The ending stocks-to-use ratios were raised for both last year and for 2022-23.
For the 2022-23 marketing year that began Oct. 1, the USDA forecast ending stocks at 1,872,000 short tons, raw value, up 161,933 tons from September and up 99,000 tons from 1,773,000 tons in 2021-22. The ending stocks-to-use ratio was forecast at 14.8%, up from 13.5% in September and up from 14% in 2021-22.
Domestic beet sugar production in 2022-23 was projected at 5,106,000 tons, down 13,000 tons from September, cane sugar output was forecast at 4,048,000 tons, up 27,000 tons, and total production was forecast at 9,154,000 tons, up 13,0000 tons.
Total imports in 2022-23 were projected at 3,610,000 tons, up 129,000 tons from September based on a like increase in TRQ imports at 1,691,000 tons, with other categories unchanged, including imports from Mexico at 1,619,000 tons, high-tier imports at 50,000 tons and other program imports at 250,000 tons.
“On Sept. 15 the USDA established the fiscal year 2022-23 refined sugar TRQ at 220,000 tonnes, raw value,” the USDA said. “USDA’s action results in an increase in 2022-23 TRQ imports of 217,206 short tons, raw value. Added to this amount are imports amounting to 77,437 tons from the 2021-22 raw sugar TRQ that did not enter in September as forecast but are forecast to enter in 2022-23 after USDA extended the period for entry until Dec. 31, 2022. Arrayed against these increases is an increase in the raw sugar TRQ shortfall by 155,424 tons to 254,632, due mostly to the decision of officials in the Philippines to allocate all production to domestic consumption and reduce exports to zero. Also, sugar imported under calendar year FTA (Free Trade Agreement) TRQs are reduced by 10,201 tons mostly because that sugar entered earlier in 2021-22 than originally forecast.”
Total deliveries in 2022-23 were projected at 12,630,000 tons, including deliveries for food at 12,525,000 tons and other at 105,000 tons, all unchanged from September, as were exports at 35,000 tons.
For the 2021-22 marketing year that ended Sept. 30, the USDA estimated ending stocks at 1,773,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from September, with an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14%, up from 13.8% both in September and in the prior year.
Domestic production in 2021-22 was estimated at 9,117,000 tons, up 52,000 tons from September with beet sugar production at 5,078,000 tons, down 24,000 tons, and cane sugar at 4,039,000 tons, up 76,000 tons due to higher cane sugar production in Louisiana during September.
Total imports were forecast at 3,644,000 tons, down 29,000 tons from September, as a decrease of 69,000 tons in TRQ imports to 1,579,000 tons was only partially offset by a 24,000-ton increase in imports from Mexico at 1,379,000 tons and an 18,000-ton increase in high-tier imports at 388,000 tons, with other program imports lowered 2,000 tons to 298,000 tons.
Total domestic sugar deliveries in 2021-22 were estimated at 12,657,000 tons, up 2,000 tons from September based on a like increase in “other” deliveries with deliveries for food unchanged at 12,550,000 tons.
Ending stocks in 2021-22 were estimated at 1,773,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from September, lifting the ending stocks-to-use ratio to 14% from 13.8% in September.
The USDA forecast Mexico’s 2022-23 sugar production at 5,900,000 tonnes, actual weight, down 100,000 tonnes from September and down 285,000 tonnes from 2021-22 due to lower yields resulting from dryness in some cane growing areas and high prices for fertilizers and other inputs along with some field labor shortages. Total exports were lowered by 100,000 tonnes to 1,403,000 tonnes, resulting in ending stocks unchanged from September and from 2021-22 at 947,000 tonnes.
The USDA made no changes from September estimates for 2021-22 for Mexico’s sugar supply and use.