KANSAS CITY — The US Department of Agriculture in its Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report estimated US Sept. 1 stocks of corn, wheat and soybeans the highest for the date in four years, although all were within the range of pre-report trade expectations. The high stocks were reflected in four-year lows in futures prices for all three commodities a few weeks ago, although futures have come off those lows.

The USDA estimated old-crop corn stocks on Sept. 1 at 1,760 million bus, up 29% from Sept. 1, 2023, but below the average trade expectation of 1,844 million bus. The total included 780 million bus of corn on farms, up 29% from a year ago, and 980 million bus off farms, up 30%. Indicated June-August disappearance was 3.24 billion bus, up 18% from 2.74 billion bus during the same period last year.

Sept. 1 all-wheat stocks were estimated at 1,986 million bus, up 12% from a year earlier and above the average trade expectation of 1,973 million bus. Of the total, 664 million bus were on farms, up 11% from last year, and 1,322 million bus were off farms at mills, processors, elevators, terminals and warehouses, up 13%. Indicated June-August disappearance of wheat was 682 million bus, up 12% from the same period last year.

Sept. 1 durum stocks were estimated at 67 million bus, including 47 million bus on farms, up 42% from Sept. 1, 2023, and 20 million bus off farms, down 16%. June-August disappearance was indicated at 33.8 million bus, up 13% from a year earlier.

Old crop soybean stocks as of Sept. 1 were estimated at 342 million bus, up 29% from the prior year but below the average of trade estimates at 351 million bus. On-farm soybean stocks were estimated at 111 million bus, up 54% from a year ago, and off-farm stocks were estimated at 231 million bus, up 20%. Indicated disappearance of soybeans was 628 million bus, up 18% from the same period in 2023.

Sept. 1 corn and soybean stocks reflect 2024 carryover for both crops. Based on end-of-marketing year estimates, export, crushing (for soybeans) and administrative data, the USDA revised 2023 corn and soybean production lower. The 2023 corn for grain production was revised down 1,075,000 bus (to 15,340,520,000 bus from 15,341,595,000 bus) from the previous estimate. And 2023 soybean production was revised down 2,620,000 bus (to 4,162,057,000 bus from 4,164,677,000 bus) from the previous estimate.

Gains in corn, wheat and soybean futures from four-year lows a few weeks ago were attributed to various factors, not the least of which was short covering of large net short positions by commodity funds.

In the case of corn, the data indicated good demand for feed and ethanol use, but fundamentals were little changed, one analyst said. Bearish fundamentals include expectations that the 2024 corn crop will be the second largest on record (after the record-large 2023 crop), keeping supplies ample and carryover high, although the stocks report lowered the estimated 2024 corn carryover by 52 million bus, or 2.9%, from the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report estimate of 1,812 million bus. The September WASDE forecast carryover for 2025 at 2,057 million bus likely will be lowered to reflect the lower 2024 number, but may hold above 2,000 million bus, a benchmark for ample to heavy supplies.

For soybeans, the Sept. 1 stocks estimate of 342 million bus was nearly even with the September WASDE estimate of 340 million bus, so little change should be expected in the October WASDE. The WASDE’s forecast 2025 soybean carryover of 550 million bus, largely the result of a forecast record-large 2024 crop, suggests ample supplies of soybeans going forward, even if drought in Brazil boosts US soybean export demand and use by renewable fuels manufacturers continues to grow.

For wheat, potential export demand to replace drought-reduced production in top-exporter Russia tended to negate the four-year high US stocks number. Russian wheat export prices have trended higher recently as winter wheat planting has been delayed by drought. Dry weather in Ukraine and Russia as well as in Argentina also was supportive to corn futures prices