SAN ANTONIO — Perimeter bakery sales edged up in October, slightly outperforming center-store bakery items, according to food market research firm 210 Analytics.

For the five calendar weeks in October, perimeter bakery sales (including fixed and random weight products) rose 0.3% year over year to $2 billion, with unit volume dipping 0.5%, based on Circana US multi-outlet data from San Antonio-based 210 Analytics. That compared with a 1.1% increase to $21.3 billion and a 0.7% uptick in units for the latest 52-week period through Nov. 3.

October sales were virtually flat for cakes, the largest category, with dollars down 0.1% to $579 million and units up 0.1%. The next top-selling category was cookies, up 3.8% to $316 million on a 2.9% gain in units.

Including cookies, only four of the nine perimeter bakery categories tracked generated dollar sales growth during the month, led by croissants rising 9.8% year over year to $96 million. The other gainers included donuts, up 4.8% to $179 million, and buns and rolls, up 2.4% to $119 million, 210 Analytics said. 

Categories seeing sales declines included specialty desserts (down 8.3% to $12 million), pies (down 6.9% to $111 million), tortillas and wraps (down 4.7% to $37 million), brownies and bars (down 3.6% to $38 million), bread (down 3.4% to $160 million), bagels and bialys (down 2.5% to $42 million), pastries and danish (down 1.7% to $179 million) and muffins (down 0.4% to $146 million).

By unit volume in October, 6 of the 13 categories realized gains, with croissants the fastest-growing segment, up 10.5% from a year ago. Also notching unit growth, besides cakes and cookies, were bread (up 4.4%), buns and rolls (up 1.8%) and donuts (up 1%). 

Specialty desserts had the biggest decline in unit volume for the month, down 11.3%, just ahead of pies at a 10.7% decrease. Also experiencing declines in units were tortillas and wraps (down 5.2%), brownies and bars (down 4.2%), bagels and bialys (down 3.2%), pastries and danish (down 1.3%) and muffins (down 0.4%).

“Perimeter bakery results were a little stronger,” Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics, said in the October sales report. “Cakes and cookies were the biggest sellers in October and gained over last year in terms of unit sales. Croissants had the highest growth, building onto a number of strong months in the past few years.”

Meanwhile, the three tracked center-store bakery categories fell in dollar and unit sales in October, according to 210 Analytics. The Circana data show bread, buns and rolls, the largest center-store bakery segment, down 0.8% to $1.9 billion for the month, followed by desserts and sweet goods down 5% to $364 million and morning bakery down 1.2% to $278 million. Bread, buns and rolls also fell 0.8% in units, while desserts and sweet goods and morning bakery were down by 6.2% and 0.4%, respectively, in units.

In the latest 52 weeks for center-store bakery, sales rose 0.5% year over year to $20.5 billion for bread, buns and rolls, with the category’s unit volume dipping 0.4%. Desserts and sweet goods fell 2.8% to $3.8 billion, with units down 4.5%, while the morning bakery segment grew 1.3% to $2.9 billion, with the same percentage gain in units.

“Bakery has become one of the last perimeter departments to fully recover, and both dollar and unit sales continue to trend behind year-ago levels,” Roerink said.

For the total bakery department, sales for the 52 weeks ended Nov. 3 gained 0.5% to nearly $48.5 billion, with unit volume declining 0.3% versus a year earlier.

Overall, bakery pricing has stabilized despite persistent inflation, Roerink noted. For the total bakery category in October, price per unit inched up 0.2% to $3.81 and was up 21% from three years ago, 210 Analytics reported, citing Circana data. The price per unit was the same for the total bakery category but was up 0.9% for the latest 52 weeks and up 25% versus three years ago.

“Bakery still has some lingering inflation in the 52-week view, but prices were flat in October,” Roerink said. “The rapid rise of egg prices could start to impact bakery prices once more, depending on the duration and severity of the HPAI (highly pathogenic avian influenza) outbreaks.”