Market Insights by Sosland Publishing

A recent story from Moneywise listed five things that likely will cost more in 2025 “no matter what Trump does in the White House” included: homeowners insurance (after 2024 hurricanes and recent California fires), streaming services, travel, coffee, and eggs. 

Eggs typically don’t make the year-end or new-year lists from the general or financial press, but they deserve their place on a list this year.

A surge in egg prices to record-high levels in late 2024 mainly was credited to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), with typical seasonal patterns taking a back seat. Wholesale prices of grade A large eggs destined for retail sale rose to a high of $5.91½ per dozen at the end of 2024 and rose another 31¢ in the first two weeks of January. Prices had doubled since late October and were 3.3 times higher than a year earlier.

Prices for egg products used by food manufacturers followed suit to some degree, with dried whole eggs and dried yolks, liquid whole eggs and frozen whole eggs all more than double year-ago values in early January, with other products up a minimum of 30% and most up about 60%.

The question is, “Where will egg and egg product prices go from here?” 

The argument may be made that since egg prices set record highs at the first of the year, the trend is likely lower, although the average price for the year could be above 2024 since prices are starting at a high level.

But that’s probably not the case. 

Brian Moscogiuri, vice president of Eggs Unlimited, said for egg prices to retreat in the near term requires either a rapid recovery in production or a decline in demand. Neither appear to be happening. He doesn’t expect improvement in prices or supplies for another six to eight months, depending on HPAI, which has tended to dictate egg prices intermittently since the first major outbreak in 2014-15, despite vast improvements in sanitation by the poultry industry.

Moscogiuri noted that about 9% of the US laying flock has been lost since mid-October. California has lost about 90% of its in-state production, and now HPAI was in the heart of the Midwest production area. The late start to HPAI outbreaks last fall and winter means there is a narrow window before the spring wild bird migration begins, limiting the amount of time producers must repopulate flocks before another round of HPAI potentially arrives.  

Retail egg demand, meanwhile, has shown no sign of slowing, Moscogiuri said. Some retailers have not passed on the full increase in egg prices, opting to limit the amount of eggs customers can buy, which doesn’t appear to have slowed demand.

Further complicating the spread of HPAI was the virus’s crossover to dairy cattle last year. The dairy industry didn’t have the same control measures in place as the poultry industry, which allowed the disease to be spread more easily. Further, cattle herds aren’t euthanized as are poultry flocks in which HPAI is detected, allowing cows to recover but also allowing the virus to linger. The dairy industry and the US Department of Agriculture have made significant progress in testing and controlling the spread of HPAI in a short period of time.

What hasn’t changed is that most laying hen operations consist of hundreds of thousands of birds, with many containing more than a million, which quickly adds to the toll when the disease is detected. 

The USDA considers the current outbreak to have started in February 2022. Nearly 139 million birds of all species have been affected through Jan. 21 in all 50 states, including 352 commercial flocks. In the last four months, outbreaks have been detected in California and east of the Rocky Mountains. December was the most severe recent month with 70 detections in commercial flocks affecting more than 18 million birds. The virus appears to be subsiding with 29 detections and 8 million birds in commercial flocks affected Jan. 1-21.

From an egg products standpoint, processors are grappling with limited supplies of high-priced breaking eggs, with some eggs that normally would go to processors going to retail channels.

One Midwest egg processor hasn’t been able to fill some orders for dried whole eggs and has been forced to change pricing to day-of-shipment, which has angered buyers.

In the 2014-15 HPAI outbreak egg replacers quickly came to market, but that doesn’t seem to be the case this year, in part because of food manufacturers’ attempts to meet consumer requests for clean labels, one analyst suggested. 

The first quarter typically is a period of lighter egg demand, allowing egg producers to put laying hens into forced molt, temporarily reducing production to lengthen the laying “career” of the hens. Forced molting may be delayed this winter, as it has at times in the past, as producers seek to keep egg production up during times of high prices. That, along with the unpredictability of HPAI, will further disrupt the egg market in the months ahead.