KANSAS CITY — Tariffs on Canadian, Mexican and Chinese imports could cost the US baking industry $454 million this year, according to the American Bakers Association (ABA).

Since early February, the White House has imposed a series of tariffs on the United States’ top three trading partners, from 10% to 20% tariffs on certain Chinese goods to a 25% levy on most imports from Canada and Mexico. The latter tariffs currently are paused until April 2.

Tariffs and their outsize impact on the baking industry are among topics being actively discussed at the ABA’s 2025 Convention in Orlando, Fla., from March 23-26.

“American baking manufacturers rely on global supply chains for essential ingredients and equipment,” the ABA said in its analysis. “Tariffs threaten to drive up costs and strain operations, jeopardizing businesses, workers and consumers.”

According to ABA figures, more than half of all imports used by US commercial bakers come from Canada, Mexico and China.

Last year, bakers imported $977 million in Canadian goods, including $193 million in ingredients, $31 million in packaging and $15 million in equipment. A 25% tariff added to those imports would result in an additional outlay of $244 million for the US industry, the ABA found.

Bakers imported $679 million in goods from Mexico in 2024, including $96 million in ingredients, $56 million in equipment and $17 million in packaging. An extra 25% added to those imports would cost the industry $170 million, the ABA said.

China sent $395 million worth of goods to US bakers in 2024, including $15 million in packaging, $13 million in ingredients and $11 million in equipment. A 10% tariff tacked on to those imports would add about $40 million, the ABA said.

Together, the extra cost of tariffs on baking-related imports would amount to $454 million annually, the ABA said.

More than half of all imports used by US commercial bakers come from Canada, Mexico and China, according to the American Bakers Association.

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In terms of US exports most affected by any retaliatory tariffs imposed by Canada and Mexico, the baking industry also is highly exposed, according to recent analysis by RaboResearch. Bakery goods rank fifth in terms of reliance on current trade exceptions in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, with Canada accounting for roughly three times as many as Mexico, RaboResearch found. Fourth are sugars and sweeteners (primarily in trade with Mexico), and eighth are milled grains. Cocoa and confectionery products come in at Nos. 9 and 10.

“The impacts of Canadian tariffs would be challenging for US (food and agriculture) as a whole, but could be particularly harmful for produce growers, manufacturers of baked goods and oilseed farmers,” wrote Thomas Bailey and Owen Wagner, who co-authored the RaboResearch analysis.

In 2024, bakery goods, cereals and pasta made up 9% of all US agricultural exports to Canada, according to US Department of Agriculture figures. US agricultural exports to Mexico were led by corn (18%), dairy (8%), pork (8%) and soybeans (7%).

“With the 25% tariff in effect, products with high demand and limited domestic substitutes in the United States, such as fresh fruits and vegetables, may see significant price increases,” Bailey and Wagner found. “Conversely, products with more domestic production capacity, like baked goods, might experience reduced trade volumes or even cease to be imported/exported altogether.”