SAN ANTONIO — Despite an overall sluggish bakery performance, sales in perimeter bakery departments largely held firm in February, food market research firm 210 Analytics reported.

For the four calendar weeks in February, fresh bakery sales (including fixed- and random-weight products) grew 0.9% year over year to $1.7 billion amid a 0.1% dip in unit volume, based on US multi-outlet data from Circana cited by San Antonio-based 210 Analytics. The results were virtually flat versus January, when perimeter bakery dollars sales rose 0.8% and unit sales inched up 0.4%.

Aisle bakery remained on the downside in February. The segment’s dollar sales fell 2.2% to $2 billion, and unit volume declined 2.6%, compared with January decreases of 2% in dollars and 2.6% in units. That kept total bakery sales in negative territory for the month, down by 0.8% in dollars to $3.7 billion and by 1.7% in units versus declines of 0.8% in dollars and 1.5% in units for January.

Overall bakery sales for the 52 weeks ended March 2 stayed flat, ticking up 0.2% in dollars to $48.5 billion on a 0.2% decrease in unit volume. Fresh bakery sales for the period gained 1.4% in units and were up 1.7% in dollars to $21.4 billion, while center-store bakery sales dropped by 1.1% in units and by 0.7% in dollars to $27.1 billion.

“Bakery has been off to a bit of a slow start to the year,” 210 Analytics president Anne-Marie Roerink said. “Both dollars and units were down a bit in comparison to February 2024. The 52-week sales were stronger, with a slight gain in dollars and flat unit sales.”

Donuts rebound, croissants stand out in fresh bakery

Eight of the 13 tracked fresh bakery segments saw dollar sales rise in February, with croissants again leading the way on a 14.3% year-over-year increase to $78 million. Also posting gains for the month were donuts, up 3.7% to $151 million; bagels and bialys, up 1.9% to $37 million; buns and rolls, up 1.5% to $96 million; bread, up 1% to $138 million; muffins, up 0.9% to $121 million; cakes, up 0.8% to $485 million; and cookies, up 0.5% to $249 million, 210 Analytics said.

Specialty desserts sank further in February, turning in the largest percentage dollar-sales decrease in perimeter bakery, down 22.3% to $9.7 million. Decliners for the month by dollars also included tortillas and wraps (down 6.5% to $3 million), pies (down 5.2% to $61 million), brownies and bars (down 3.8% to $33 million) and pastries and Danish (down 1.6% to $151 million).

By unit volume in perimeter bakery, croissants showed strength with a 12.3% for February uptick, while muffins posted a stronger performance with a 3.8% increase. Overall, 6 of the 13 fresh bakery categories had unit growth. The other gainers included bread (up 1.7%), buns and rolls (up 0.3%), bagels and bialys (up 0.3%) and cakes (up 0.1%).

Behind the fresh bakery dollar sales falloff for specialty desserts in February was a 17.6% drop in units, the 210 Analytics report showed. Also sliding for the month in units were tortillas and wraps (down 6.2%), pies (down 4.4%), brownies and bars (down 3%), pastries and Danish (down 2.7%), cookies (down 2%) and donuts (down 1.6%).

“Much like seen in aisle bakery, the results varied widely across categories,” Roerink said of February’s perimeter bakery performance. “Cakes were the biggest seller in February, generating $485 million, with growth in both dollars and units. The next three – cookies, pastries and donuts – experienced mild decreases in unit sales. Winning categories included bread, muffins and croissants.”

Social media may have given fresh croissants a lift, she noted. “While croissants are a relatively small seller, gains of 12.3% in units are impressive. This may be related to the hashtag #flatcroissant that has amassed over 13.5 million views on TikTok. Many home bakers share their interpretations of pressing croissants flat before baking, resulting in a denser texture.”

Center-store bakery slide continues

In the center store, all 14 tracked bakery segments had dollar sales decreases in February, according to the 210 Analytics report.

Cakes were the top decliner, down 13.2% year over year in dollars to $31 million, but sizable decreases also came in snack cakes (down 8.5% to $114 million), wraps and flatbread (down 8% to $21 million), donuts (down 4.8% to $85 million), and muffins (down 3.3% to $82 million).

Segments experiencing smaller declines were croissants (down 42.5% to $11 million), pies (down 2% to $21 million), bread (down 1.4% to $888 million), cookies (down 1.4% to $77 million), bagels and bialys (down 1.2% to $129 million), buns and rolls (down 1% to $389 million), English muffins (down 0.8% to $72 million), pastries and Danish (down 0.3% to $57 million). and brownies and bars (down 0.2% to $40 million).

On the unit volume side, just one aisle bakery segment saw an increase in February: pastries and Danish, up 0.5%

Center-store bakery unit decreases for the month came in cakes (down 11.6%), snack cakes (down 7.8%), wraps and flatbread (down 5.9%), muffins (down 3.6%), and donuts (down 3%). The declines were less pronounced in pies (down 2.6%), bread (down 2.4%), cookies (down 1.9%), buns and rolls (down 1.7%), brownies and bars (down 1.4%), croissants (down 1.3%), bagels and bialys (down 0.5%), and English muffins (down 0.4%).

Among like segments in February, bread and buns/rolls dollar sales fell 1.3% to $1.5 billion on a 2% decrease in unit volume, while desserts/sweet goods sales were down by 1.6% in units and by 0.3% in dollars to $836 million. Morning bakery sales declined 0.6% in units but rose 1% in dollars to $422 million.

“Center store bakery sales had a soft February, with year-on-year declines for bread and desserts,” Roerink said. “Morning bakery had a split performance, with a 1% gain in dollars, but slight unit pressure. In the 52-week view, morning bakery did gain in units, and desserts/sweet goods were nearly even with prior year levels.

“Within aisle bakery, performances ranged widely from a double-digit decline in unit sales for cakes to virtually flat results for bagels,” she explained. “Overall, far more baked goods categories struggled to maintain sales this month than seen in the past few months, as seen when comparing February to the full year. In the 52-week view, six areas grew units month over month, with the largest gains for croissants, muffins and pies.”

Eggs again factor into pricing

Though prices have stabilized recently in bakery overall, the category saw prices tick up in February, 210 Analytics said, citing the Circana multi-outlet data.

Total bakery price per unit was $3.86 for January, up 0.9% year over year and representing a 17.6% increase from three years ago. For the 52 weeks through February, the price per unit was $3.82, up 0.4% from the prior-year period and an uptick of 22.3% from three years earlier.

Across the store, food and beverage prices per unit rose 2.5% versus a year ago, reflecting average increases of 1.8% in the center store and 4% in fresh foods.