KANSAS CITY — February was a historic period for the egg industry. After notching several consecutive record highs each week during the month, egg prices across nearly all categories began to retreat in March. But while inventory is improving and consumer demand appears to have lessened, analysts maintain that the US egg supply remains in shortage and that future price spikes are possible.
Values for breaking stock and Grade A large eggs in the week ended March 28 were down 56% from a month earlier but still were more than 50% higher than the same period a year earlier, according to the US Department of Agriculture. And while values at retail outlets appear to have stopped climbing in several locations, and have even begun declining in many areas, they remain firm.
“It takes time to change shelf pricing,” said Brian Moscogiuri, vice president of Eggs Unlimited, Irvine, Calif. “They’re not going to change their weekly circulars or the pricing on their shelves on a weekly basis, and if they’re going to make a move, they might as well be aggressive with the move as opposed to trickling up or down by pennies because it costs them money to make those adjustments on the shelves and in print.”
Also, the US Department of Agriculture continues to confirm cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Since the start of the year, more than 30 million birds in commercial table-egg layer flocks have been euthanized to control the spread of the virus. But most detections in March were relegated to smaller live bird markets or birds kept in captivity for purposes other than meat or egg production. Still, the industry aware that the lasting and widespread presence of the virus remains a threat, and just a few confirmations at large commercial egg-laying operations can quickly erase the current reprieve in the market.
The fragile situation was made even more tenuous by the start of the spring migration season for wild birds, a key vector of HPAI infections. Also, with the approaching Easter holiday later this month, the industry’s second-strongest demand period, analyst opinions were that significantly lower prices at grocery stores may not appear until early May.
“We’ve seen prices drop at the wholesale level, and that will probably take two to three weeks to translate into prices at the retail level,” said Amy Smith, vice president at Advanced Economic Solutions, Omaha. “I think demand will pick back up for Easter, and I think that will push prices a little bit higher, but I don’t think we’ll get back to the record levels they’ve been unless we start to significantly lose more flocks to HPAI.”
With Easter approaching, analyst opinions were that significantly lower prices at grocery stores may not appear until early May.
| Photo: ©BILLIONPHOTOS.COM – STOCK.ADOBE.COMValues for most processed egg products also were declining, and manufacturers were taking advantage of sluggish demand at the retail sector to build inventories. From March 7 to March 28, prices for frozen and liquid whole egg and egg whites fell an average of 46%, according to data collected by Sosland Publishing. During the same one-month period, however, prices for frozen and liquid egg yolks only declined by 7%.
Continued strong demand from salad dressing, condiment and ice cream manufacturers has kept egg yolk prices steady. Prices for all dried eggs remained fixed at record highs in March due to strained inventories, limited drying capacity and lengthy processing schedules.
Processed egg products also were at the mercy of an uptick in HPAI detections. While inventories for some categories expanded to three-month highs, the overall supply remains tight. In its March 25 Cold Storage report, the USDA said US frozen egg supplies on Feb. 28 totaled 14,420,000 lbs, down 16% from Jan. 31, down 55% from February 2024, and the lowest level in at least 10 years. Frozen egg yolks at the end of February were at the lowest level ever documented at 431,000 lbs.
With inventories improving but still tight, the primary driver pressuring egg prices lower was likely lessening demand from consumers. Growing weary from “eggflation,” consumers have been shifting from buying shell eggs that were priced as high as $10 per dozen in some locations to exploring plant-based egg alternatives. Latentview Analytics, San Jose, Calif., in a recent report said the company that manufactures the product Just Egg, an egg substitute formulated with mung beans and canola oil, reported a fivefold increase in sales in early 2025.
Some believed egg prices were being pressured by a US Department of Justice investigation, which sought inquiry into potential antitrust violations by egg producers after a report from Expana, London, showed that 15% of the country’s egg-laying hens have been culled because of HPAI in the past four months, yet wholesale prices during the same period were up 255%. But market analysts disagreed.
“Almost everything that has happened in the market seems to be backed by fundamentals,” Moscogiuri said. He added that the price surge was more a function of limited supplies being further strained by robust demand.
