SAN ANTONIO — Bakery sales took a hit in March due to the late timing of Easter this year, with the declines lower in the perimeter than in the center store.

Fresh bakery dollar sales (including fixed- and random-weight products) for the four calendar weeks in March fell 3.3% year over year to $1.6 billion as unit volume slipped 2.7%, according to Circana US multi-outlet data reported by San Antonio-based 210 Analytics. That compared with flattish results in February, when perimeter bakery dollar sales rose 0.9% despite a 0.1% dip in units.

March brought a bigger decrease for the aisle bakery than in the previous month. Dollar sales dropped 4.3% to $2 billion on a 4.5% decline in units, following decreases of 2.2% in dollars and 2.6% in units for February.

As a result, overall bakery sales remained on the downside for March and the year to date. Total bakery sales in the month were down 3.8% to $3.6 billion as unit volume also fell by 3.8% year over year. That came after declines of 0.8% in dollars and 1.7% in units for February and 0.8% in dollars and 1.5% in units for January.

Easter Sunday falls on April 20 this year, compared with March 31 in 2024.

“The much later timing of Easter in 2025 versus 2024 wreaked havoc on the bakery sales numbers in March,” said Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics. “Both dollars and units were down 3.8%, far more than the mostly flat sales results for the full-year view.”

For the 52 weeks ended March 30, total bakery sales dipped 0.3% to $48.4 billion, with units down 0.6%. Fresh bakery sales were up 1% in units and 0.8% in dollars to $21.4 billion, compared with decreases of 1.5% in units and 1.2% in dollars to $27 billion for center-store bakery.

“It is important to look beyond the date-shift impact and focus on the longer-term trends,” Roerink noted. “While March was negatively affected by the later timing of Easter, April sales will be boosted by the additional Easter volume, affecting both functional and indulgent bakery items.”

Only 2 of the 13 tracked perimeter bakery segments saw increases for March, with both tallying dollar and unit gains. Donuts were up 8.3% in dollars to $148 million on a 3.8% uptick in units. Croissants continued to perform well as dollar sales climbed 11% to $80 million, aided by 8.3% growth in units.

Specialty desserts had the biggest dollar sales decline for perimeter bakery in March, down 32.4% to $7.1 million. That was followed by pies, down 20.5% to $66 million. Those two segments also turned in the largest unit volume declines for March, with specialty desserts down 16.6% and pies decreasing 11.6%.

“The March sales results for perimeter bakery reflected the same Easter timing impact, including down results for cakes, cookies and pies,” Roerink said. “Donuts, on the other hand, had a good month. Donuts generated $148 million in March sales, which was up 8.3% in dollars and 3.8% in units. Croissants were another area of substantial year-over-year growth.”

In center-store bakery for March, the desserts/sweet goods segment experienced the biggest decreases, down by 6.3% in units and 5.8% in dollars to $284 million. Morning bakery sales fell 4% in units and 4.5% in dollars to $221 million, with the larger bread and buns/rolls category posting smaller declines as units were down 4.2% and dollars decreased 3.9% to $1.5 billion.

“The mismatch in timing affected all three areas in center-store bakery, including bread and rolls, desserts and morning bakery,” Roerink said. “All experienced declines in dollars and units that were far greater than those seen in the latest 52-week view. This means that April sales will likely benefit from the Easter boost, going up against an everyday week in 2024.”