KANSAS CITY  — Since the Jan. 20 US presidential inauguration, large food manufacturers and startups alike have been scrambling to figure out business plans amid the brewing trade war between the United States and its trading partners.

On March 4, President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on products coming from Canada and Mexico and doubled a previously issued tariff on goods from China to 20%. On April 2, the administration announced a new universal minimum tariff of 10% on all goods imported to the United States, including food and agricultural products, effective April 5.

The White House also unveiled “retaliatory tariffs” targeting more than 50 countries, with individual rates from 10% up to 49%. The 25% tariff the White House enacted on Canada and Mexico were still in play, but most food and agricultural products were exempted under the existing United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which Trump negotiated during his first term.

A few days later, the Trump administration issued a 90-day pause on the higher retaliatory tariffs but maintained the baseline 10% tariff on imports, excluding goods from China, which incurred higher tariffs throughout the month.

As of April 22, the United States has imposed a minimum 145% tariff on Chinese exports, while China has raised its minimum tariff rate on imports from the United States to 125%. Select US agricultural imports to China are facing steeper levies: wheat 140%, corn 140%, meat 135% to 145%, sorghum 135% and soybeans 135%.

Meanwhile, products from Mexico and Canada that qualify under the USMCA remain duty free. On April 21, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said trade talks with the United States were ongoing, with a focus on reducing a 25% tariff on vehicles, steel and aluminum, with the latter potentially increasing packaging costs for US food companies. 

In this series, the Sosland Publishing Co.’s Market Insights column will focus on five ingredients that may directly affect startups amid the tariff uncertainty.

Market overviews

Sugar: Domestic prices are trending downward due to significant oversupply (mainly of beet sugar) in the current marketing year (ending Sept. 30) and weak demand. Prices for bulk beet sugar in late April were down about 30% from a year earlier and for refined cane sugar were down about 15%. Unless tariffs are imposed on Mexico, the largest source of US imported sugar, the duties were expected to have minimal impact on the US sugar market.

Coffee: New York arabica coffee bean futures hit record highs above $4 a lb earlier in 2025 amid tight supplies and forecasts of lower production in Brazil, the largest producer of arabica beans and the most widely used in the world due to their mild flavor. Tariffs were expected to have some price-increasing impact on coffee, although minimized if tariffs on Brazil are limited to 10%.

Dairy: Prices for most dry dairy products in late April had been steadily declining for a few weeks as milk production increases to its spring peak, usually in May, although prices were flat to modestly above year-ago levels. The exception has been 34% whey protein concentrate that was up more than 85% from a year ago as supplies have been short because processors have focused on making more profitable high protein concentrates and isolates. Dairy may be especially susceptible to tariffs because of the active North American and global trade in dairy products. 

Eggs: Wholesale prices for graded shell eggs have sharply descended from their recent record highs, but they remain over 250% higher compared with pre-pandemic and pre-bird flu outbreak values. Prices for egg products also have dropped except for dried egg products, which remain at all-time highs due to high demand, strained inventories and limited processing capacity.

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