CHICAGO — Major food companies have significant exposure to planned cutbacks in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), according to consumer data research firm Numerator.

SNAP is among a swath of federal benefits targeted for spending cuts in President Donald Trump’s “one big, beautiful” budget bill passed by the House. The House Agricultural Committee has forecast that changes to SNAP — including expanded work requirements, heightened efforts to eliminate inefficiency and fraud, and the transfer of more costs to states — will produce federal savings of $290 billion.

Based on its consumer shopping trip data, Chicago-based Numerator identified Post Consumer Brands LLC, Tyson Foods Inc. and Conagra Brands Inc. as among top consumer packaged foods manufacturers most exposed to SNAP benefit changes. In trips where shoppers bought brands from top manufacturers, 10.6% of Post trips used SNAP dollars, followed by 8.4% of Tyson trips and 7.7% of Conagra trips, Numerator said.

Not far behind were Kraft Heinz Co., with 7.5% of trips in which its products were purchased using SNAP benefits, as well as General Mills Inc. (7.3% of trips using SNAP), PepsiCo’s Frito-Lay (7.2% of trips), J.M. Smucker Co. (6.8% trips), Bimbo Bakeries USA (6.8% of trips), Nestle (6.5% of trips) and Kellanova (6.4% trips).

“Proposed cuts to SNAP could have ripple effects across the retail economy,” Numerator said in “The SNAP Evolution: Supporting Shoppers in a Changing Economy,” a new report released June 16. “A new tax bill passed by House Republicans would tighten work requirements and shift program costs to states. It is a move that the Congressional Budget Office estimates could push more than 1.3 million Americans off the program. For brands, the impact could be immediate.”

Numerator’s report leverages behavioral data from more than 31,600 verified SNAP recipients — defined as individuals who used SNAP benefits 12 or more times in the past year — and survey responses from more than 1,250 participants.

Of 20 food and beverage categories tracked by Numerator, 14 showed year-over-year decreases in their percentage of grocery shopping trips using SNAP or WIC (Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children) benefits for the three months ended April 30.

The largest declines were seen in meat (22.1% of trips, down 3.4 percentage points year over year), deli and prepared foods (15.3% of trips, down 2.3 pp), snacks (34.3% of trips, down 1.1 pp), candy (18.3% of trips, down 1 pp) and beverages (56.7% of trips, down 1 pp).

Other categories posting SNAP/WIC trip decreases included frozen foods (25.3% of trips, down 70 basis points), packaged bakery (18% of trips, down 60 bps), shelf-stable meals (10.3% of trips, down 40 bps), in-store bakery (9.8% of trips, down 40 bps), condiments (15.2% of trips, down 30 bps), baking and cooking (15.2% of trips, down 20 bps), canned foods (10.1% of trips, down 20 bps), breakfast foods (8% of trips, down 20 bps) and seafood and fish (1.9% of trips, down 10 bps).

Produce (34.3% of trips, up 1 percentage point), dairy (34.1% of trips, up 70 basis points), herbs and spices (5.3% of trips, up 10 bps) and pasta and noodles (3.8% of trips, up 10 basis points) were the only categories with increased SNAP/WIC shopping trips over the three-month period. Beans and grains (2.1% of trips) and refrigerated foods (1.5% of trips) were flat in trips year over year.

Roughly 42 million Americans currently use SNAP benefits, but participation in the program has dropped. Numerator said SNAP participation peaked in May 2022 when 19% of US households regularly used SNAP benefits, but that fell to 15% of households in February 2025.

“With (COVID) emergency allotments expired and eligibility narrowing, SNAP participation is falling,” Numerator said. “Some states are expected to reduce their support even further under the weight of new funding burdens. For lower-income shoppers, that likely means smaller baskets, fewer indulgences and tighter budgets overall.”

In Numerator’s survey, 68% of SNAP users said the benefits “somewhat” or “barely” cover their nutritional needs.

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SNAP recipients’ grocery spending correlates closely with benefit levels, which peaked during expanded aid in 2021-22 and then sank after emergency allotments ended in March 2023. SNAP benefits issued dropped 8.5% year over year in March 2023, while the grocery buy rate for SNAP trips that month fell 8.4%, according to Numerator.

With lower benefit levels, SNAP users are finding it harder to stretch those dollars. Numerator found that 86% of SNAP recipients said their benefits are exhausted before the end of the month, leaving the vast majority without financial assistance when grocery shopping.

In turn, 68% of participants said SNAP only “somewhat” or “barely” covers their nutritional needs, up 5 percentage points from 2022. As a result, they’re buying fewer nutrient-dense foods. Numerator said 31% of SNAP shoppers are purchasing less meat/protein (up 4 pp from 2022), and 24% are buying less fresh produce (up 7 pp from 2022). Meanwhile, 47% said they are stocking up during sales (down 4 pp from 2022).

“SNAP consumers are under pressure,” Numerator said. “With tightening budgets and looming cuts to eligibility, many are struggling to stretch their benefits and often can’t participate in broader consumer trends like better-for-you products. These shoppers aren’t disengaged; they’re constrained.”

The crunch in SNAP benefit dollars reflects where participants buy their groceries. Based on verified purchase data for SNAP users, Walmart leads in SNAP shopper spend (24%), followed by Kroger (8%), Costco (6%), Amazon (5%) and Sam’s Club (4%), according to Numerator.

In fact, Walmart, Amazon, 7-Eleven, Dollar General and Dollar Tree over-index with SNAP shoppers, reflecting their shift in spend to large-format retailers with strong value and assortment, the report noted. Over the 52 weeks ended March 30, SNAP users shifted their CPG and general merchandise share of spend toward Costco (up 2%), Walmart (up 1.2%), Amazon (up 0.8%), Sam’s Club (up 0.5%) and Target (up 0.3%).

“SNAP directly funds billions in food and essentials spending each year,” Numerator said. “While most general merchandise categories aren’t SNAP-eligible, the program’s role in subsidizing core grocery needs frees up discretionary dollars that often flow into apparel, electronics, home goods and more. When benefits are cut, households don’t just reduce grocery trips; they reprioritize everything.”