CINCINNATI — While sales data is often the food industry’s primary measurement for which brands are performing well — or not — an occasionally overlooked factor is the psychology of why consumers buy certain products, and how that may impact the overall success of a brand.

Market research firm Alpha-Diver tracks the performance of snack brands based on consumer behavior and interest, using what the company describes as its proprietary AI-generated, psychology-based data, which is quantitatively measured across the US general population. 

In one measurement, Alpha-Diver uses a four-segment chart called the Snack50 to map where brands currently exist in their respective business lifecycles based on how shoppers are interacting with those brands; from exploration to routine purchases, or brands stuck in the no-man’s land of stagnation and flagging shopper interest.

On the company’s 2025 Snack50 chart, private label and store brands like Walmart’s Great Value, Amazon’s Aplenty and Aldi’s line of owned brands continue to challenge national brands for consumer interest, and that trend is expected to continue, said Hunter Thurman, founder of Alpha-Diver.  

“This is the first time in history that retailers can influence (sales),” he said. “Retail media networks really changed the game in terms of the retailer being able to nudge people toward their owned brands.”

Thurman added that retailers today have the advantage of owning the point of purchase. Also, many consumers view a store’s lower-priced private label as equal to national brands in terms of quality, and in some instances, may not even know they’re buying a store brand.

“In most cases, it’s not a trade down, they’re just looking at a different, equally exciting brand,” Thurman said. “Go on Amazon and look at Aplenty. There’s ghost pepper kettle chips. That’s not a trade down from Lay’s Kettle (Cooked) to Aplenty. That’s a trade out.”

Thurman also noted a story from his own household that underscores the recognition store brands have today.

“Kroger’s natural brand is Simple Truth, and we buy these Simple Truth egg bites,” he said. “(One day) I told my wife, ‘I’m going to Walmart to grab some things. Do you need anything?’ She said, ‘Yeah, get some of those Simple Truth egg bites.’ I said, ‘That’s Kroger.’ That is very consistent with consumers not knowing that so many of these brands are private label.”

Chart mapping

On the Snack50 chart (see below), the quadrants are labeled No-Man’s Land, Exploration, Routine and Promised Land. A vertical measurement gauges the interest of consumers in specific brands, while a horizontal measurement cross-references the action of shoppers in purchasing those brands. Companies progress on the chart by initially creating interest and excitement among consumers, with the goal of becoming household staples and routine purchases.

Scores are based on Alpha-Diver’s consumer data range from 0-350 for shopper interest, and 0-200 for action/purchasing habits, with a score of 100 being the baseline for cross-referencing and defining the quadrants.

On this year’s chart, Aldi and Great Value share Promised Land territory with legacy stalwarts like Hershey’s, Lay’s and Planters, with Great Value receiving the highest score regarding consumer interest in Promised Land-brands.

Courtesy: Alpha-Diver 

In the Exploration quadrant, Amazon’s Aplenty has the highest score by far for current consumer interest among all CPG snack brands, nearly 100 points above second-place candy brand Feastables. Also ranking high in the Exploration quadrant for private label brands are Target’s Favorite Day and Good & Gather; Costco’s Kirkland; Walmart’s bettergoods and subsidiary Sam’s Club’s Member’s Mark; Amazon’s Happy Belly; and Kroger’s Private Selection.  

None of the store brands on this year’s Snack50 chart appear in the No-Man’s Land quadrant, and some are anticipated to join Aldi and Great Value in Promised Land territory in the future, Thurman said, where combined product interest and routine purchasing among consumers is highest.

Dupe culture

Thurman said the current momentum for store brands also is being helped by a consumer trend that originated on social media through fashion/apparel called “dupe culture” where it is desirable — even perceived as cool — to buy lower-priced competitors of brand names.

“There is this this component of dupe culture, particularly in fashion, where (consumers) are not the least bit embarrassed that they’ve got a dupe,” Thurman said. “I think it’s important to note that the dupe culture mindset trickles down into things like snacks, even for (private label) value brands. It’s not just the price trade down that it used to be.”

Thurman added that private label confections are the next category to watch, and that legacy candy companies “need to really be getting ahead of that right now.”

Looking ahead to continued competition between private labels and established CPG brands, and the influence of outside factors like dupe culture on purchasing decisions, Thurman said, “I think most national manufacturers are still using the old playbook. The first step is to recognize that the battle you’re fighting, you have to know the fight you’re in to win it. Many are still fighting an old fight that shoppers don’t even have on their radar anymore.”