KANSAS CITY — In its first outlook for the 2013-14 crop year, the London-based International Cocoa Organization forecast a 115,000-tonne global cocoa bean deficit, down from an upwardly-revised 2012-13 deficit of 174,000 tonnes.
World cocoa bean production in 2013-14, which began Oct. 1, 2013, was forecast at 4.104 million tonnes, up 4% from a revised 3.942 million tonnes in the prior year. World grindings were forecast at 4.178 million tonnes for the current year, up 2.5% from an upwardly revised 4.077 million tonnes in 2012-13. The surplus/deficit forecast is based on net cocoa bean production, not the reported gross production number.
The I.C.C.O. forecast year-end cocoa bean stocks of 1.547 million tonnes for 2013-14, down 7% from a revised 1.662 million tonnes for the prior crop year. The 2013-14 stocks-to-grinding ratio was forecast at 37%, down from 41% last year.The nearby New York May cocoa bean futures contract traded slightly higher after the data was released Feb. 28, but futures turned lower on profit taking during the March 3 session. May futures briefly topped $3,000 a tonne on Feb. 21, which was near a 2½-year high, on indications of improving cocoa demand and ongoing tight cocoa bean supplies.