WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its July 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2015, at 1,447,000 short tons, raw value, down 463,000 tons, or 24%, from 1,910,000 tons projected in June and down 361,000 tons, or 20%, from a downwardly revised 1,808,000 tonnes forecast as the carryover on Oct. 1, 2014.
The 2014-15 ending stocks-to-use ratio fell from 15.8% in June to 11.9% in July, and the 2013-14 ratio was lowered from 15% in June to 14.5% this month. The ratio for the current year is at the low end of the U.S.D.A.’s targeted range while next year’s ratio is below the range.
For the current year (2013-14) the U.S.D.A. estimated domestic sugar production at 8,442,000 tons, down 48,000 tons from June. Imports for 2013-14 were forecast at 3,674,000 tons, up 89,000 tons, or 2%, from June based on a like increase in tariff rate quote imports at 1,458,000 tons as the result of last week’s reallocation of T.R.Q. imports. Total 2013-14 U.S. sugar supply was forecast at 14,274,000 tons, up 41,000 tons from June and up 90,000 tons from 2012-13.
Total sugar use in 2013-14 was estimated at 12,466,000 tons, up 90,000 tons from June based on a 100,000-ton increase in deliveries for food and a 10,000-ton reduction in “other” deliveries.
Ending stocks were forecast at 1,808,000 tons, down 3% from June and down 16% from 2012-13.
For 2014-15, the U.S.D.A. projected domestic sugar production at 8,225,000 tons, down 130,000 tons from June based on a like reduction in cane sugar production at 3,475,000 tons.
Projected imports for the year that begins Oct. 1, 2014, were lowered 234,000 tons, or 6%, from June to 3,549,000 tons. Tariff rate quote imports were left at the World Trade Organization commitment minimum of 1,262,000 tons. Imports from Mexico were projected at 1,877,000 tons, down 234,000 tons, or 11%, from June. Total 2014-15 sugar supply was projected at 13,582,000 tons, down 413,000 tons, or 3%, from June and down 692,000 tons, or 5%, from 2013-14.
Sugar production in Mexico in 2013-14 was forecast at 6.025 million tonnes, actual weight, down 75,000 tonnes from June. Total exports were estimated at 2,358,000 tonnes, up 80,000 tonnes, and ending stocks were forecast at 663,000 tonnes, down 155,000 tonnes, or 19%, from the June forecast.For 2014-15 Mexican sugar production was forecast at 6.140 million tonnes, down 360,000 tonnes from June, imports were forecast at 450,000 tonnes, up 99% from June, domestic use was unchanged at 4.69 million tonnes and exports were forecast at 1.616 million tonnes, down 291,000 tonnes from June. Ending stocks for 2014-15 were unchanged from June at 947,000 tonnes.