WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Sept. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected 2014-15 U.S. sugar ending stocks at 1,028,000 short tons, raw value, up 23% from its August projection but down 46% from an upwardly revised 1,896,000 tons forecast for 2013-14.
The 2014-15 ending stocks-to-use ratio rose from 6.9% in August to 8.5%, still well below the U.S.D.A.’s target near 15%. The 2013-14 ratio was raised from 14.1% in August to 15.2% and within the desired range.
There were no revisions to U.S. sugar use for 2013-14 or 2014-15.
For 2014-15 U.S. beet sugar production was raised 50,000 tons from August to 4,800,000 tons, while cane sugar production was unchanged at 3,591,000 tons.
Total 2014-15 imports were projected at 2,876,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from August based on a 116,000-ton increase in tariff rate quota imports, projected at 1,378,000 tons, more than offset by a 117,000-ton decrease in imports from Mexico, projected at 1,088,000 tons.
“Tariff rate quota sugar imports are forecast higher by 116,000 tons due to provision for additional specialty sugar imports made when U.S.D.A. established the T.R.Q. on Sept. 2,” the U.S.D.A. said in comments included in the WASDE report.
Total sugar supply in the year that begins Oct. 1, 2014, was projected at 13,163,000 tons, up 191,000 tons, or 1.5%, from August but down 1,199,000 tons, or 8%, from the current year. Total sugar use in 2014-15 was projected at 12,135,000 tons, unchanged from August but down 331,000 tons, or 3%, from 12,466,000 tons this year.
For the current year (2013-14) all revisions were in imports, which raised ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio. Total imports were forecast at 3,787,000 tons, up 142,000 tons, or 4%, from the August forecast, based on a 60,000-ton increase in other program imports (imports for re-export programs), forecast at 270,000 tons, and an 82,000-ton increase in imports from Mexico, forecast at a record high 2,136,000 tons.
“Sugar imports from Mexico for 2013-14 are increased by 82,000 short tons, raw value, based on pace to date through August and 50,000 tons expected to enter in September, the last month of the fiscal year,” the U.S.D.A. said.
Total supply for the current year, which ends Sept. 30, was forecast at 14,362,000 tons, up 142,000 tons, or 1%, from August and up 178,000 tons, up 1%, from 2012-13.
For Mexico, the U.S.D.A. forecast 2013-14 exports at 2,508,000 tonnes, actual weight, up 100,000 tonnes from August due to a 70,000-tonne hike in exports to the United States and a 30,000-tonne increase to other countries. Ending stocks were reduced by a like 100,000 tonnes to 614,000 tonnes for the current year.
“The resulting 14.6% stocks-to-consumption ratio (for 2013-14) implies a tight market until the full start of the 2014-15 harvest in mid-December,” the U.S.D.A. said.
For 2014-15, a 100,000-tonne decrease in beginning stocks was offset by a projected 100,000-tonne decrease in exports, projected at 1,516,000 tonnes, resulting in unchanged ending stocks at 947,000 tonnes.Production, imports and domestic use forecasts for Mexico were unchanged from August for both 2013-14 and 2014-15.