The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Oct. 9 lowered its forecast for the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2016, to 861 million bus, down 14 million bus from the September projection but up 108 million bus, or 14%, from 753 million bus in 2015. The wheat carryover forecast was lowered as decreased production more than offset a forecast decline in total use.
The wheat production estimates were unchanged from those published on Sept. 30 in the U.S.D.A.’s Small Grains 2015 Summary. All-wheat production was estimated at 2,052 million, down 84 million bus from the September projection but up 26 million bus from 2014. The U.S.D.A. forecast wheat imports in 2015-16 at 125 million bus, unchanged from the September outlook and down 24 million bus from 149 million bus in 2014-15. The all-wheat supply for 2015-16 was forecast at 2,930 million bus, down 84 million bus from the September forecast but up 164 million bus, or 6%, from 2,766 million bus in 2014-15.
Domestic use of wheat in 2015-16 was forecast at 1,219 million bus, down 20 million bus from the September projection but up 60 million bus, or 5%, from 1,159 million bus in 2014-15. The lower domestic use forecast was tied to a lower forecast for feed and residual use as food use of wheat and seed use forecasts were unchanged. The U.S.D.A. forecast feed and residual use of wheat at 180 million bus, down 20 million bus from the September projection but up 60 million bus, or 50%, from 120 million bus in 2014-15. The U.S.D.A. commented, “Feed and residual use is lowered 20 million bus reflecting Sept. 1 stocks that indicated lower-than-expected June-August disappearance.”
The forecast for food use of wheat was unchanged from September at a record 967 million bus, up 9 million bus from 958 million bus in 2014-15, the current record. Seed use of wheat was forecast at 72 million bus, which was down 9 million bus from 2014-15.
The U.S.D.A. forecast U.S. wheat exports in 2015-16 at 850 million bus, down 50 million bus from the September projection, down 4 million bus from 854 million bus in 2014-15 and the lowest since 850 million bus in 2002-03. The U.S.D.A. said, “Exports are lowered 50 million bus to 850 million on a slow sales pace to date and continued lack of U.S. price competitiveness, particularly compared with Black Sea countries and the European Union.”
The projected range for the 2015-16 season average farm price of wheat was narrowed 10c on both the high and low ends to $email@example.com a bu.The U.S.D.A. forecast the 2016 hard red winter wheat carryover at 401 million bus, up 27 million bus from September and compared with 295 million bus in 2015. The hard red spring wheat carryover was forecast at 239 million bus, up 2 million from September and compared with 212 million bus in 2015. The U.S.D.A. forecast the soft red winter wheat carryover at 142 million bus, down 29 million bus from September and down 12 million bus from 2015. The white wheat carryover was projected at 49 million bus, down 19 million bus from the September outlook and down 18 million bus from 2015. The durum carryover was forecast at 30 million bus, up 5 million bus from September and up 4 million bus from 2015.