WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Nov. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report forecast the carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2016, at 911 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 6%, from 861 million bus forecast in October, up 158 million bus, or 21%, from 753 million bus in 2015 and the highest since 2009-10.
The U.S.D.A. 2016 wheat carryover number was above the average of trade expectations at 866 million bus.
The increase in 2016 wheat carryover was the result of a 50-million-bu decline in projected exports from October to 800 million bus. Exports would be the lowest since 1971-72 and reflected “continued lack of U.S. price competitiveness,” the U.S.D.A. said. There were no other changes in the wheat supply and use numbers except for a narrowing of the forecast price range to $4.80@5.20 a bu from $4.75@5.25 in October.
U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was forecast at 1,760 million bus, up 199 million bus, or 13%, from 1,561 million bus projected in October and up 29 million bus, or 2%, from 1,731 million bus in 2015. The U.S.D.A. 2016 corn carryover was above the pre-report trade average expectation of 1,587 million bus.
U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was projected at 465 million bus, up 40 million bus, or 9%, from 425 million bus in October, and up 274 million bus, or 143%, from 191 million bus in 2015. The 2016 U.S.D.A. soybean carryover number also was above the average trade expectation near 429 million bus.
Wheat, corn and soybean futures traded lower after release of the report.
World wheat ending stocks were forecast at a record 227.30 million tonnes for 2015-16, down from 228.49 million tonnes projected in October but up from 211.69 million tonnes in 2014-15. Global wheat production was forecast at 733 million tonnes, the third consecutive record, the U.S.D.A. said.
World corn ending stocks were projected at 211.91 million tonnes for 2015-16, up from 187.83 million tonnes in October and up from 208.21 million tonnes forecast for 2014-15.
Global 2015-16 soybean ending stocks were projected at 82.86 million tonnes, down from 85.14 million tonnes in October but up from 77.58 million tonnes in 2014-15.
