Toasty Midwest forecasts push corn, soybeans higher

Recap for August 1

US equity markets closed sharply lower Thursday in a selloff precipitated by benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dropping below 4% for the first time since February under pressure from weaker-than-expected employment, manufacturing and construction data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 494.82 points, or 1.21%, to close at 40,347.97. The Standard & Poor’s 500 shed 75.62 points, or 1.37%, to close at 5,446.68. The Nasdaq Composite deleted 405.25 points, or 2.3%, to close at 17,194.15.

Favorable US crop weather and weak export demand pressured soybean futures to their lowest levels since September 2020 on Thursday. Corn futures also declined, the most-active contract to its lowest level on a continuous chart since November 2020 under pressure from forecasts for cool, rainy weather in the US Midwest, which boosted yield expectations and depressed prices. Wheat futures advanced as crop-damaging rains in France more than offset weak demand for US wheat in the export market, with weekly US export sales figures near the low end of analysts’ expectations. September corn eased ¾¢ to close at $3.82 a bu. Chicago September wheat added 4¾¢ to close at $5.32 per bu. Kansas City September wheat added 5½¢ and closed at $5.54½ per bu. Minneapolis September wheat added 7¢ and closed at $5.88½ per bu. August soybeans dropped 6½¢ to close at $10.22 per bu. August soybean meal added $1.80 to close at $355.90 per ton, but later months were mixed. August soybean oil was down 0.43¢ to close at 42.87¢ a lb.

US crude oil prices were lower Thursday as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries kept its oil output policy unchanged including a plan to start unwinding a portion of output cuts from October. The September West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future dropped $1.60 to close at $76.31 per barrel.

The US dollar index strengthened on Thursday.

US gold prices extended gains again Thursday. The August contract advanced $8.50 and closed at $2,435 per oz.

Recap for July 31

Corn futures declined Wednesday, the most active contract closing down 6¢ a bu after striking a contract low, amid mild crop weather and beneficial rains in the Midwest that encouraged farmers to market hefty stocks of old-crop corn as their hope for higher prices faded. Wheat futures posted mixed closes with Minneapolis declining amid the early days of spring wheat harvest but Chicago and KC moving mostly higher on a weaker US dollar, smaller French wheat crop and a cut to Ukraine’s grain and oilseeds crop forecast. Soybean futures crept higher with a boost from Middle Eastern tension that overshadowed continued favorable crop weather in the Midwest. September corn fell 6¢ to close at $3.82¾ a bu. Chicago September wheat added 3¼¢ to close at $5.27¼ per bu. Kansas City September wheat slid 1¼¢ and closed at $5.49 per bu; the March 2025 future and beyond were ¼¢ to 1¼¢ higher. Minneapolis September wheat dropped 3¢ and closed at $5.81½ per bu. August soybeans edged up 1¼¢ to close at $10.28½ per bu. August soybean meal added $2.10 to close at $354.10 per ton, though all forward contracts were lower. August soybean oil was up 0.55¢ to close at 43.30¢ a lb.

US equity markets opened Wednesday sharply higher and held on to gains through the closing bells after Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell signaled the central bank is prepared to cut interest rates in September if inflation keeps moving lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 99.46 points, or 0.24%, to close at 40,842.79. The Standard & Poor’s 500 added 85.86 points, or 1.58%, to close at 5,522.30. The Nasdaq Composite soared 451.98 points, or 2.64%, to close at 17,599.4.

US crude oil prices were higher Wednesday on concerns war in the Middle East could expand and after the US Energy Information Administration said US crude stocks decreased by 3.4 million barrels last week, more than triple the 1.1 million-barrel decline analysts had expected. Crude stocks fell for a fifth straight week, the longest streak of drawdowns since January 2021. The September West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future added $3.18 to close at $77.91 per barrel.

The US dollar index weakened Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady.

US gold prices extended gains as the dollar slid and after the central bank chairman hinted a rate cut could come as soon as September. The August contract jumped $21.50 and closed at $2,426.50 per oz.

Recap for July 30

Soybean futures tumbled Tuesday, sinking close to four-year lows on lackluster export opportunities amid potentially abundant US supplies as favorable weather conditions continue to support the domestic crop. The forecast for beneficial weather also pressured corn futures. And wheat futures slid lower on low Russian wheat prices and the advancing harvest of the US crop. September corn fell 7½¢ to close at $3.88¾ a bu. Chicago September wheat declined 7¢ to close at $5.24 per bu. Kansas City September wheat slid 3¼¢ and closed at $5.50¼ per bu. Minneapolis September wheat deleted 7¢ and closed at $5.84½ per bu. August soybeans sank 27½¢ to close at $10.27¼ per bu. August soybean meal dropped $3.50 to close at $352 per ton. August soybean oil ticked down 0.09¢ to close at 42.75¢ a lb; later months were mixed, but mostly lower.

US equity markets were mixed Tuesday as investors processed potential implications from the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting as well as the release of major earnings reports from high-tech heavyweights like Amazon and Apple coming later this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 203.4 points, or 0.50%, to close at 40,743.33. The Standard & Poor’s 500 dropped 27.10 points, or 0.50%, to close at 5,436.44. The Nasdaq Composite fell 222.78 points, or 1.28%, to close at 17,147.42.

US crude oil prices declined Tuesday. The September West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future fell $1.08 to close at $74.73 per barrel.

The US dollar index edged slightly higher Tuesday.

US gold prices were sharply higher Tuesday. The August contract jumped $27.20 and closed at $2,405.00 per oz.

Recap for July 29

Wheat futures, aside from deferred Chicago soft wheat contracts, were lower Wednesday as traders pondered the potential effect on drought- and frost-damaged crops in the Black Sea region from weather charts intimating rain could reach parts of drought-plagued southern Russia and Ukraine accompanied by high temperatures that could curb the benefits of additional precipitation. The downturn in soybean prices continued Wednesday in technical trading amid plentiful South American supplies and the USDA’s indication soybean planting was 68% complete, ahead of analysts’ expectations of 66% and ahead of the five-year average of 63%. Corn futures dipped low under spillover pressure from wheat, the USDA’s report showing the crop was 83% planted as of Sunday, in line with trade expectations and ahead of the five-year average, and expectations for a dry planting window could last into the end of the week in Midwest. July corn fell 7¼¢ to close at $4.55¼ a bu; December 2025 and beyond ticked higher. Chicago July wheat declined 7½¢ to close at $6.92¾ per bu; July 2025 and beyond were higher. Kansas City July wheat lost 11½¢ and closed at $7.19¾ per bu. Minneapolis July wheat deleted 5½¢ and closed at $7.52 per bu. July soybeans fell 15½¢ to close at $12.14 per bu. July soybean meal dropped $7.50 to close at $369.10 per ton. July soybean oil advanced 0.36¢ to close at 45.88¢ a lb.

US equity markets faltered Wednesday after the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.623%, from 4.542% Tuesday, its highest level since April 30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 411.32 points, or 1.06%, to close at 38,441.54. The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 39.09 points, or 0.74%, to close at 5,266.95 with all 11 sectors posting declines. The Nasdaq Composite shed 99.30 points, or 0.58%, to close at 16,920.58.

US crude oil prices declined about 1% Wednesday on concerns that US gasoline demand and weak economic data could cause the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer. The July West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future fell 60¢ to close at $79.23 per barrel.

The US dollar index reversed course and strengthened on Wednesday on higher bond yields ahead of Friday’s release of the US core personal consumption expenditures price index report, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Expectations are for it to hold steady on a monthly basis.

The stronger dollar, higher bond yields and hawkish comments from a central bank leader weighed on market sentiment ahead of Friday’s inflation data report. All helped pressure US gold prices Wednesday. The June contract was down $15.30 and closed at $2,341.20 per oz.

Recap for July 26

Grain and oilseed futures tumbled Friday on weather and court action. Soybean oil fell sharply after a federal appeals court ruled that a 2022 decision by the Environmental Protection Agency to deny waivers to small oil refineries seeking exemption from the biofuels blending program was unlawful. Soybean corn futures also were pressured by improved weather forecasts for the US Midwest during key crop development stages. Wheat futures were pressured by large US supplies and export competition, mainly from the Black Sea region. September corn dropped 11½¢ to close at $3.94½ a bu. Chicago September wheat fell 14¼¢ to close at $5.23½ per bu. Kansas City September wheat tumbled 16¢ to close at $5.45½ a bu. Minneapolis September wheat was down 15¼¢ to close at $5.88½ per bu. August soybeans plunged 38½¢ to close at $10.77½ per bu. August soybean meal added 90¢ to close at $353.30 per ton, but all months from October forward were lower. August soybean oil shed 2.15¢ and closed at 43.66¢ a lb.

US equity markets soared on Friday, led by the DJIA that was up more than 800 points during the session, after the Personal Consumption Expenditures index indicated a strong economy amid cooling inflation, with ideas the fed will begin to cut interest rates in September. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq still posted losses for the week on declines in technical stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 654.27 points, or 1.64%, to close at 40,589.34. The Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 59.88 points, or 1.11%, to close at 5,459.10. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 176.16 points, or 1.03%, to close at 17,357.88.