WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on May 10 projected U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2017, at 1,657,000 short tons, raw value, down 86,000 tons, or 4%, from an upwardly revised 1,743,000 tons forecast as the carryover on Oct. 1, 2016.
The 2016-17 ending stocks-to-use ratio was set at 13.5%, the required minimum under the U.S.-Mexico bilateral trade agreement signed in December 2014. Next year’s ratio compares with 14.2% forecast for the current year and 14.9% in 2014-15.
The U.S.D.A. projected 2016-17 U.S. beet sugar production at 5,090,000 tons, up 26,000 tons from 5,064,000 tons in 2015-16, which was raised 66,000 tons, or 1%, from the April estimate. U.S. cane sugar production was projected at 3,620,000 tons, down 249,000 tons, or 6%, from 3,869,000 tons in the current year, which was raised 75,000 tons from April. Total 2016-17 U.S. sugar production was projected at 8,710,000 tons, down 223,000 tons, or 2.5%, from an upwardly revised 8,933,000 tons in 2015-16.
“Early planting of the 2016-17 sugar beet crop implies above-average yields and a larger proportion of the crop harvested in August and September prior to the start of the coming fiscal year,” the U.S.D.A. said.
Total U.S. imports in 2016-17 were projected at 3,479,000 tons, up 248,000 tons, or 8%, from 3,231,000 tons in 2015-16, which was raised 22,000 tons from April to reflect the recent specialty sugar tariff-rate quota increase. T.R.Q. imports were projected at 1,531,000 tons, down 86,000 tons, or 5%, from an upwardly revised 1,617,000 tons in 2015-16.
Other program imports were projected at 175,000 tons, down 125,000 tons from 2015-16.
Imports of sugar from Mexico were projected at 1,758,000 tons, up 459,000 tons, or 35%, from 1,299,000 tons estimated for 2015-16.
“Sugar imports for 2016-17 are projected at 3.479 million short tons, raw value,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Total T.R.Q. imports are projected at 1.531 million tons, the sum of the World Trade Organization T.R.Q.s less a shortfall projected at 99,208 tons, as well as imports under several free trade agreements with sugar import provisions.”
Total U.S. sugar supply was projected at 13,932,000 tons, down 46,000 tons from 13,978,000 tons in 2015-16.
Total domestic sugar deliveries were projected at 12,225,000 tons, up 90,000 tons from an upwardly revised 12,135,000 tons in 2015-16. Sugar deliveries for food were projected at 12,080,000 tons, up 80,000 tons from 12,000,000 tons in the current year. U.S. sugar exports in 2016-17 were projected at 50,000 tons, down 50,000 tons from 2015-16. Total use was projected at 12,275,000 tons, up 40,000 tons from 12,235,000 tons in 2015-16.
Sugar production in Mexico in 2016-17 was projected at 6,100,000 tonnes, actual weight, down 1% from an upwardly revised estimate of 6,184,000 tonnes for 2015-16. Imports were projected at 10,000 tonnes, down from 70,000 tonnes this year. Total domestic use was projected at 4,652,000 tonnes, up from a downwardly revised 4,586,000 tonnes in 2015-16. Exports were projected at 1,515,000 tonnes for 2016-17, up 35% from 1,121,000 tonnes in 2015-16 and in line with projected U.S. imports. Ending stocks in Mexico were projected at 1,301,000 tonnes next year, down from an upwardly revised 1,358,000 tonnes in the current year.“Sugar deliveries for human consumption are projected at 4.398 million tonnes, slightly above 2015-16,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Exports to the United States are projected at 1.505 million tonnes, as per the limit set in the December 2014 Countervailing Duty Suspension Agreement.”