WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Jan. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected U.S. all wheat carryover on June 1, 2017, at 1,186 million bus, up 4% from 1,143 million bus projected in December, up 22% from 976 million bus a year earlier and the highest since 1,261 million bus in 1988.
In its quarterly Grain Stocks report, the U.S.D.A. estimated Dec. 1 stocks of all wheat at 2,073 million bus, up 19% from 1,746 million bus on Dec. 1, 2015, and the highest since 2,501 million bus in 1987.
Both the 2017 carryover and the Dec. 1 stocks numbers were above the average of pre-report trade expectations, but both were within the full range of forecasts.
Wheat futures traded mostly higher after the U.S.D.A. reports, with higher-than-expected stocks and carryover numbers offset by a 10% drop in winter wheat seeded for harvest in 2017 at 32.4 million acres, which was below the average of trade expectations and the second lowest in records going back to 1909.
The higher carryover number was based on lower projections for feed and residual and seed use in 2016-17. Feed and residual was projected at 225 million bus, down 35 million bus, or 13%, from the December projection but up 73 million bus, or 48%, from 152 million bus in 2015-16. The lower forecast was based on June-November disappearance as implied by the Dec. 1 wheat stocks estimate, the U.S.D.A. said. Seed use was estimated at 61 million bus, down 8 million bus from December and down 6 million bus from last year reflecting lower winter wheat seedings. Exports were projected at 975 million bus, unchanged from December but up 200 million bus from 2015-16. Supply projections were unchanged from December for all wheat, but minor changes were made in wheat-by-class numbers.
The average price of wheat paid to farmers was forecast to range between $3.75 and $3.85 a bu, up from $3.60 to $3.80 a bu in December but down from $4.89 a bu last year and the lowest since 2005, the U.S.D.A. said.
Hard red winter wheat carryover on June 1, 2017, was projected at 597 million bus, up 14 million bus from December based on a 20-million-bu decline in domestic use at 536 million bus partially offset by a 1-million-bu drop in supply at 1,533 million bus and a 5-million-bu increase in exports at 400 million bus.
Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 226 million bus, up 27 million bus from December based on a 4-million-bu increase in supply at 542 million bus, an 18-million-bu decrease in domestic use at 231 million bus and a 5-million-bu decrease in exports at 85 million bus.
The 2017 carryover of hard red spring wheat was forecast at 205 million bus, down 3 million bus from December based on a 2-million-bu decrease in supply at 803 million bus, a 4-million-bu decrease in domestic use at 298 million bus and a 5-million-bu increase in exports at 300 million bus.
White wheat carryover was forecast at 106 million bus, up 11 million bus from December based on a 6-million-bu decrease in domestic use at 96 million bus and a 5-million-bu decrease in exports at 165 million bus.
The U.S.D.A. forecast 2017 durum carryover at 52 million bus, down 6 million bus from December based on a 1-million-bu decrease in supply at 165 million bus and a 5-million-bu increase in domestic use at 88 million bus.Global 2016-17 wheat ending stocks were forecast at a record 253.29 million tonnes, up 1.15 million tonnes from the December projection and up 12.8 million tonnes, or 5%, from 240.49 million tonnes in 2015-16. World wheat production was forecast at 752.69 million tonnes, up 1.3 million tonnes from December based on increased outturn in Argentina at 15 million tonnes, the European Union at 144.32 million tonnes and Russia at 72.5 million tonnes. Global exports were forecast at 178.05 million tonnes, up 1.22 million tonnes from December as increases for Argentina, Australia, the E.U. and Ukraine more than offset decreases for Canada and North Africa. Global wheat use (food, feed and other) was forecast at 739.89 million tonnes, up 120,000 tonnes from December.