WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its April 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, raised from March its forecast carryover of wheat and corn but slightly lowered its soybean forecast.
The carryover of all wheat on June 1, 2019, was forecast at 1,087 million bus, up 32 million bus, or 3%, from 1,055 million bus as the March forecast but down 12 million bus from 1,099 million bus in 2018.
There were no changes made to wheat supply forecasts for 2018-19.
Total wheat use in 2018-19 was forecast at 2,042 million bus, down 31 million bus from March but up 62 million bus from 1,980 million bus in 2017-18. Food use of wheat was unchanged from March at 965 million bus, feed and residual use was lowered by 10 million bus to 70 million bus and exports were reduced by 20 million bus to 945 million bus.
U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2019, was forecast at 2,035 million bus, up 200 million bus, or 11%, from 1,835 million bus as the March forecast but down 105 million bus, or 4.9%, from 2,140 million bus in 2018.
Corn supply forecasts for the current year were unchanged from March.
Total domestic use was forecast at 12,265 million bus, down 125 million bus from March and down 95 million bus from 12,360 million bus in 2017-18. Feed and residual use was forecast at 5,300 million bus, down 75 million bus from March, and use of corn for ethanol was forecast at 5,500 million bus, down 50 million bus.
Exports in 2018-19 were forecast at 2,300 million bus, down 75 million bus from March and down 138 million bus, or 6%, from 2,438 million bus last year.
Feed and residual use for both wheat and corn were lowered based on estimates in the March 29 Grain Stocks report that implied lower use, the U.S.D.A. said.
Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2019, was forecast at 895 million bus, down 5 million bus from March but up 104% from 438 million bus in 2018. Unchanged from March were forecast domestic crush at 2,100 million bus and exports at 1,875 million bus, although exports were down 12% from 2017-18. Slight changes were made to imports and seed use.
The U.S.D.A. 2019 carryover forecasts for wheat and corn were above the average of trade expectations while the soybean number was slightly below. There was minimal reaction in futures markets after the report with wheat futures slightly lower and nearby corn and soybean futures fractionally lower.
The U.S.D.A. forecast 2018-19 world wheat ending stocks at 275.61 million tonnes, up 5.08 million tonnes from March but down 6.28 million tonnes from 281.89 million tonnes in the prior year. The changes from March mainly were based on supply revisions for Iran and lower global consumption, primarily lower feed use, the U.S.D.A. said.
Global corn ending stocks were forecast at 314.01 million tonnes, up 5.48 million tonnes from March but down 26.4 million tonnes from 340.41 million tonnes in 2017-18. Corn production forecasts were raised from March for Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, the European Union and others.
World soybean ending stocks were forecast at 107.36 million tonnes, up 190,000 tonnes from March and up 8.31 million tonnes, or 8%, from 99.05 million tonnes in 2017-18.