WASHINGTON – The US Department of Agriculture on May 12, in its initial supply-and-demand forecasts for 2021-22 as presented in the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, projected a larger 2022 corn carryover than expected, but its 2022 soybean carryover forecast was in line with trade expectations.
The USDA forecast the carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2022, at 1,507 million bus, up 250 million bus, or 20%, from 1,257 million bus as the downwardly revised carryover forecast for 2021. The lower projection for the 2021 carryover resulted from a 100-million-bu increase in forecast 2020-21 corn exports, to a record 2,775 million bus, which was only partly offset by a 5-million-bu decrease in corn use in ethanol and byproducts to 4,975 million bus.
The forecast for the 2022 carryover was well above the average of pre-report trade estimates at 1,344 million bus.
The carry-in supply of corn for 2021-22 (equating to the projected 2021 corn carryover) was lowered 95 million bus from the April outlook to 1,257 million bus.
The USDA forecast 2021 corn production forecast at 14,990 million bus, up 808 million bus, or 6%, from 14,182 million bus in 2020. The production forecast was based on a projected harvested area of 83.5 million acres and a trendline yield forecast at 179.5 bus per acre.
Corn imports in 2021-22 were forecast at 25 million bus, the same as projected for 2020-21.
Total corn supply in 2021-22 was projected at 16,272 million bus, up 145 million bus from 16,127 million bus as the forecast for the current year.
The USDA forecast total corn disappearance in 2021-22 at 14,765 million bus, down 105 million bus from a projected 14,870 million bus in 2020-21.
Domestic use of corn in 2021-22 was projected at 12,315 million bus, up 220 million bus, or 2%, from a forecast 12,095 million bus in 2020-21. Feed and residual use of corn in the upcoming crop year was projected at 5,700 million bus, unchanged from the forecast for 2020-21. Food, seed and industrial use of corn in 2021-22 was forecast at 6,615 million bus, up 220 million bus from a projected 6,395 million bus in 2020-21. including 5,200 million bus for use in ethanol compared with a projected 4,975 million bus in 2020-21.
The USDA commented, “Corn used for ethanol is projected to increase based on expectations of higher US motor gasoline consumption. Corn feed and residual use is unchanged as a larger crop is offset by increased corn use for ethanol and higher expected season-average farm prices received by producers.”
The USDA projected 2021-22 corn exports at 2,450 million bus, down 325 million bus, or 12%, from a record 2,775 million bus forecast for 2020-21.
“Unfavorable production prospects are forecast to limit exports out of Argentina and Brazil during 2020-21 (local marketing years beginning March 2021 and ending February 2022), supporting US exports during the first half of 2021-22,” the USDA said. “However, a 335-million-bu increase in the combined corn exports for Ukraine and Russia in 2021-22 is expected to increase competition for the United States, reducing the forecast US share of global corn trade from a year ago.”
The USDA said corn stocks to use at 10.2% in 2021-22 would be above 2020-21 but still below the average seen during 2016-17 to 2019-20.
The average farm price of corn in 2021-22 was projected at $5.70 a bu compared with $4.35 as forecast for 2020-21 and $3.56 in 2019-20.
The USDA forecast the carryover of soybeans on Sept. 1, 2022, at 140 million bus, up 20 million bus from the 120 million bus forecast as the 2021 carryover and compared with 525 million bus in 2020. The average of pre-report trade estimates for the 2022 soybean carryover was 138 million bus.
The USDA projected soybean production in 2021 at 4,405 million bus, up 270 million bus, or 7%, from 4,135 million bus in 2020. Imports in 2021-22 were forecast at 35 million bus, unchanged from the projection for the current year. Total soybean supply in 2021-22 was projected at 4,560 million bus, down 135 million bus, or 3%, from 4,695 million bus in 2020-21.
The USDA forecast the soybean crush in 2021-22 at 2,225 million bus, up 35 million bus from the 2,190 million bus projected for the current year. The USDA said the higher crush forecast for 2021-22 reflected favorable crush margins.
“Soybean oil is expected to hold a higher share of the crush value as prices are buoyed by increased use of soybean oil as a feedstock in an expanding renewable diesel industry,” the USDA commented.
Soybean exports in 2021-22 were projected at 2,075 million bus, down 205 million bus, or 9%, from a record 2,280 million forecast for 2020-21.
“With lower soybean supplies and higher crush, the US export share of global soybean trade is expected to decline to 33% from 36% in 2020-21,” the USDA said.
Seed use of soybeans in 2021-22 was forecast at 104 million bus, up 2 million bus from 2020-21. Residual use of soybeans in 2021-22 was projected at 15 million bus versus 4 million as the forecast for the current year.
Total disappearance of soybeans in 2021-22 was projected at 4,420 million bus, down 155 million bus, or 3%, from 4,575 million bus as forecast for 2020-21.
The average farm price of soybeans during 2021-22 was projected at $13.85 a bu compared with $11.25 in 2020-21 and $8.57 a bu in 2019-20.