WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its Nov. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report raised from October its estimate of 2020-21 and 2021-22 sugar ending stocks and stocks-to-use ratios with record-high beet sugar and total sugar production forecast for 2021-22.
For 2020-21, which ended Sept. 30, the USDA raised domestic sugar production from October by 48,000 tons, raw value, to 9,230,000 tons as a 60,682-ton increase in beet sugar at 5,092,000 tons more than offset a 12,000-ton reduction in cane sugar at 4,139,000 tons.
Imports for 2020-21 were lowered from October by 56,719 tons due to a 2,000-ton decrease in tariff-rate quota, a 23,000-ton cut in other programs, a 19,000-ton reduction in high-tier and a 13,000-ton reduction in imports from Mexico with total imports forecast at 3,195,000 tons.
Total sugar supply in 2020-21 was estimated at 14,043,000 tons, down 9,000 tons from October’s estimate and down 54,000 tons from 2019-20.
Total sugar use in 2020-21 was forecast at 12,315,000 tons, down 56,000 tons from October due mainly to a 90,835-ton reduction in deliveries for food at 12,109,000 tons. Exports and “other” both were reduced by 3,000 tons from October while miscellaneous was raised by 40,000 tons.
“Deliveries for human consumption for 2020-21 are estimated at 12.109 million tons, a decrease of 90,835 (tons) and arguable attributable to challenges faced by refiners after Hurricane Ida,” the USDA said. “Cane sugar deliveries for September were 9.4% below the average of the previous five years and at the lowest level since 2011-12.”
Ending stocks for 2020-21 were estimated at 1,728,209 tons, up 47,000 tons from October and up 110,000 tons from 2019-20. The ending stocks-to-use ratio was estimated at 14%, up from 13.6% in October and from 13% in 2019-20.
For 2021-22, which began Oct. 1, beginning stocks were raised from October by 47,000 tons to 1,728,209 tons. Beet sugar production was forecast at a record 5,413,000 tons, up 65,544 tons from October “on processors’ forecasts of beet sugar production from slicing less adjustments made for August-September production in 2021 and projected 2022,” the USDA said. Cane sugar production in 2021-22 was forecast at 3,919,000 tons, down 20,021 tons from October due to a like reduction in Louisiana “on a lower crop yield forecast by (USDA), a slightly lower sucrose recovery forecast by processors and adjustments made for September production in 2021 and 2022.”
Imports in 2021-22 were projected at 3,045,000 tons, up 45,000 tons from October due to a 20,000-ton increase in TRQ imports and a 25,000-ton increase in high-tier imports “after the importation of high-tier tariff raw sugar in October by a major US refiner,” the USDA said. Forecast imports from Mexico in 2021-22 were unchanged from October at 1,084,000 tons.
Total US sugar supply in 2021-22 was forecast at 14,105,000 tons, up 138,000 tons from the October forecast and up 62,000 tons from 2020-21.
Domestic deliveries for 2021-22 were unchanged from October but were up 80,000 tons from 2020-21 at 12,305,000 tons, with deliveries for food at 12,200,000 tons, unchanged from last month but up 91,000 tons from last year. Total sugar use was forecast at 12,340,000 tons in 2021-22.Ending stocks for 2021-22 were forecast at 1,765,294 tons, up 138,000 tons from October and up 37,000 tons from 2019-20. The ending stocks-to-use ratio was projected at 14.3%, up from 13.2% in October and from 14% last year.