WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its Jan. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report raised from December its forecast of 2021-22 US sugar production, lowered imports and left deliveries unchanged.
The USDA forecast 2021-22 total domestic sugar production at a record high 9,393,000 tons, up 151,983 tons, or 1.6%, from its December forecast and up 160,000 tons from 2020-21. The increase mainly was the result of a 144,333-ton boost to cane sugar production, all in Louisiana, bringing total cane sugar output to 3,992,000 tons, up 3.8% from December but down 3.6% from last year. Beet sugar production was forecast at a record high 5,401,000 tons, up 7,650 tons from December and up 309,000 tons, or 6%, from 2020-21.
“Louisiana cane sugar production for 2021-22 is increased by 144,333 short tons, raw value, to 1,856,571 tons on industry reporting,” the USDA said. “The sugar cane harvest is finishing very strong with good reported sucrose content and will continue longer than usual into the second half of January. Beet sugar is increased by 7,650 short tons, raw value on small increases in sugar recovery and in sugar beet slicing.”
Sugar imports were forecast at 3,016,000 tons, down 60,000 tons from December and down 179,000 tons from 2020-21, based on a like decline in tariff-rate quota imports, forecast at 1,551,000 tons. Imports from Mexico were unchanged from December at 1,065,000 tons, as were high-tier imports at 150,000 tons.
“Raw sugar imports entering under the 2020-21 TRQ that had been extended to Dec. 31 were 55,060 short tons, raw value, below what was expected last month,” the USDA said. “Imports entering under calendar year Free Trade Agreement TRQs were decreased by 5,149 short tons, raw value, on less sugar entering before Dec. 31 than had been allocated.”
Total sugar supply in 2021-22 was forecast at 14,113,000 tons, up 94,689 tons, or 0.7%, from December and up 67,000 tons, or 0.5%, from 2020-21.
There were no changes from December made to forecast deliveries for food, “other” or exports. Deliveries for food were forecast at 12,200,000 tons, up 65,000 tons from 12,135,000 tons in 2021, which also was unchanged.
Ending stocks for 2021-22 were forecast at 1,773,038 tons, up 95,000 tons, or 6%, from December and up 68,000 tons, or 4%, from 2020-21. The current-year ending stocks-to-use ratio was forecast at 14.37%, up from 13.6% forecast in December.
Only minor changes from December were made for 2020-21 estimates, resulting in ending stocks raised 2,915 tons to 1,705,000 tons, and leaving the ending stocks-to-use ratio unchanged at 13.8%.
There were no changes made to Mexico’s supply and use estimates for 2020-21 or forecasts for 2021-22.