WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its July 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report raised from June its forecasts for US sugar supply and use for both 2021-22 and 2022-23, resulting in higher ending stocks-to-use ratios for both years.
The USDA raised its forecast of 2021-22 sugar imports by 217,197 short tons, raw value (STRV), from June to 3,699,000 tons based on a 39,000-ton increase in tariff-rate quota imports (at 1,766,000 tons), a 43,927-ton increase in high-duty imports (at a record 278,436 tons), and a 135,000-ton increase in imports from Mexico (at 1,355,000 tons). Although TRQ imports were raised by 99,999 tons in July, the USDA expects 38,270 tons to enter the United States by Sept. 30 (the end of the 2021-22 marketing year) and 55,115 tons to enter in October (the first month of 2022-23), with the remainder going to the TRQ shortfall. All of the import increase for Mexico is expected to enter the United States in the current marketing year.
US sugar production was forecast at 9,118,000 tons in 2021-22, up only 2,000 tons from the June forecast.
Total 2021-22 supply was forecast at 14,522,000 tons, up 215,000 tons from June.
Sugar deliveries for food in 2021-22 were forecast at 12,600,000 tons, up 150,000 tons from the June forecast and up 465,000 tons from 2020-21, due to strong deliveries during the first eight months of the year, boosting total deliveries and total use by the same 150,000 tons from June.
US 2021-22 sugar ending stocks were forecast at 1,781,774 tons, up 64,410 tons from June, with an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14%, up from 13.6% in June and compared with 13.8% in 2020-21.
Significant changes also were made to 2022-23 sugar supply and use forecasts as the USDA seeks to balance for a 13.5% ending stocks-to-use ratio in the July WASDE, although that goal fell short as it was forecast that Mexico did not have sufficient sugar to meet the full US needs to achieve a 13.5% ratio.
US sugar production in 2022-23 was forecast at 8,947,000 tons, up 124,335 tons from the June forecast based on higher beet sugar production, forecast at 4,933,728 tons due to higher planted area estimated in the June 30 Acreage report. Cane sugar production was forecast at 4,013,000 tons, unchanged.
Imports were forecast at 3,501,025 tons in 2022-23, up 487,829 tons from June. TRQ imports were forecast at 1,445,000 tons, up 55,115 tons to account for the increase in the 2021-22 TRQ entering the United States in October. The 2022-23 TRQ raw sugar shortfall was projected at 99,208 tons. Imports from Mexico were forecast at 1,756,000 tons, up 433,000 tons, or 33%, from June. Other program imports at 250,000 tons and high-duty imports at 50,000 tons were unchanged from June. The specialty sugar portion of the TRQ has not yet been announced but will be added to the total at a later date.
“Under the terms of the AD/CVD Suspension Agreements, sugar imported from Mexico would be expected to be projected at a level resulting in an ending US stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5% assuming sufficient Mexican sugar for export after meeting domestic requirements in Mexico,” the USDA said. “Because USDA is not making any changes to Mexico supply and use projections for 2022-23 at this time, the implied maximum sugar available for export to the US is projected at 1,756,180 STRV. This is less than the 1,900,775 STRV, needed to result in ending stocks of 1,709,775 tons for a 13.5% stocks-to-use ratio.”
US sugar deliveries for food in 2022-23 were projected at 12,525,000 tons, up 75,000 tons from the June forecast but down 75,000 tons from the higher 2021-22 forecast. Total deliveries and total use were raised by the same 75,000 tons.
“The delivery pace for the first eight months of the fiscal year (2021-22) is up 3.9% compared with the same period average for the five preceding years,” the USDA said. “The strong pace of deliveries is expected to continue into 2022-23 for a period of time.”
Ending stocks in 2022-23 were projected at 1,564,000 tons, up 601,000 tons from June but down 218,000 tons from 2021-22. The 2022-23 ending stocks-to-use ratio was projected at 12.4%, up from 7.6% projected in June but below the targeted minimum of 13.5%.Mexico’s sugar production in 2021-22 was forecast at 6,180,000 tonnes, actual weight, down 28,000 tonnes from June. Exports were forecast at 1,789,000 tonnes, down an offsetting 28,000 tonnes, and resulting in ending stocks of 947,000 tonnes, unchanged from June. There were no changes from June in the USDA’s 2022-23 supply and use projections for Mexico.