WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Nov. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report lowered its forecast for 2018 U.S. wheat carryover by 3% from its October forecast due to higher exports, slightly lowered forecast soybean carryover due to lower soybean production and raised forecast corn carryover by 6% mainly due to expected higher 2017 corn production.
The U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of all wheat on June 1, 2018, at 935 million bus, down 25 million bus from its October forecast due to a like increase in exports, forecast at 1,000 million bus. All other 2017-18 all wheat forecasts were unchanged, as were 2016-17 estimates with 2017 carryover at 1,181 million bus.
“Recent sales to Iraq support a higher export projection with hard red winter accounting for the entire increase,” the U.S.D.A. said.
Slight changes were made in wheat-by-class carryover forecasts for 2018 with hard red winter at 461 million bus, down 26 million bus from October on a 25-million-bu forecast increase in 2017-18 exports at 415 million bus and a 1-million-bu decline in total supply. Hard red spring carryover on June 1, 2018, was forecast at 157 million bus, down 5 million bus from October based on a like increase in domestic use, forecast at 271 million bus. Soft red winter wheat carryover was forecast at 222 million bus, up 1 million bus on a like increase in total supply. White wheat carryover was forecast at 67 million bus, up 4 million bus due to a 5-million-bu decrease in domestic use and a 1-million-bu decrease in supply. Durum carryover was raised 1 million bus to 28 million bus based on a like increase in supply.
Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2018, was forecast at 425 million bus, down 5 million bus from October based on a like decrease in forecast 2017 production at 4,425 million bus. All other 2017-18 forecasts and 2016-17 estimates were unchanged with 2017 carryover at 301 million bus.
Corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2018, was forecast at 2,487 million bus, up 147 million bus, or 6%, from October and up 8% from 2,295 million bus in 2017. The increase resulted from a 298-million-bu increase in forecast 2017 corn production, at 14,578 million bus, partially offset by a 75-million-bu increase in 2017-18 feed and residual use at 5,575 million bus, and a 75-million-bu increase in forecast exports at 1,925 million bus.
“Exports are raised 75 million bus, reflecting expectations of improved U.S. competitiveness, reduced exports for Ukraine and increase demand from Mexico based on sharply lower sorghum production prospects,” the U.S.D.A. said.
The U.S.D.A. 2018 wheat carryover forecast was below the pre-report trade average expectation of 956 million bus, the soybean carryover was slightly above the trade average of 420 million bus and the U.S.D.A. corn carryover was well above the trade average of 2,360 million bus.Wheat futures closed mixed for the day, with corn and soybean futures lower.