WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its Feb. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, projected carryover of sugar in the United States on Oct. 1, 2020, (2019-20 ending stocks) at 1,516,000 short tons, raw value, down 40,000 tons, or 2.6%, from the January projection and down 267,000 tons, or 15%, from 1,783,000 tons in 2019, resulting in an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 12.4%, down from 12.7% in January and down from 14.5% in 2019.
U.S. sugar production was forecast at 8,158,000 tons, unchanged from January but down 9% from 2018-19 and the lowest since 2010-11, based on beet sugar outturn at 4,444,000 tons, the lowest since 2008-09, and cane sugar at 3,713,000 tons, the lowest since 2013-14.
Total imports were projected at 3,841,000 tons, down 40,000 tons from January, with tariff rate quota imports at 1,674,000 tons, up 70,486 tons, other program imports at 350,000 tons, unchanged, high-tier imports at 100,000 tons, unchanged, and imports from Mexico at 1,717,000 tons, down 110,180 tons, or 6%.
The T.R.Q. increase reflects the U.S. Trade Representative’s reallocation of unused country-specific raw sugar quota allocations for 2019-20 announced Feb. 6, with a resulting raw sugar World Trade Organization shortfall projected at 40,000 tons, raw value.
Total projected use in 2019-20 was unchanged from December at 12,265,000 tons, including 12,125,000 tons for food.
For Mexico, sugar production was forecast at 5,672,000 tonnes, actual weight, down 99,994 tonnes from January and down 12% from 6,426,000 tonnes in 2018-19, based on a Feb. 5 survey-based estimate from CONADESUCA. Beginning stocks, imports and domestic forecasts were unchanged from January, but exports were lowered 101,388 tonnes to 1,502,000 tonnes, including 32,951 tonnes shipped to other countries through Jan. 26 and forecast exports of 1,469,000 tonnes to the United States. Ending stocks were raised 2,000 tonnes to 936,000 tonnes, which was down 20% from 2018-19.