KANSAS CITY — A bevy of reports from the US Department of Agriculture on Jan. 12 were viewed as bullish for grain and oilseed futures with the USDA data near or below the average of many pre-report trade expectations.
Chicago corn, soybean and wheat futures, as well as Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat contracts all surged after the mostly bullish USDA reports, posting fresh contract and six-year highs in most cases, including corn futures up the daily trading limit of 25¢ a bu.
The USDA forecasts of average prices paid to farmers for wheat, corn and soybeans in 2020-21 all were raised from the December forecasts.
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates:
Carryover of all wheat on June 1, 2021, was forecast at 836 million bus, down 26 million bus, or 3%, from the December forecast and down 19% from 1,028 million bus in 2020.
Corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2021, was forecast at 1,552 million bus, down 150 million bus, or 9%, from December and down 19% from 1,919 million bus a year earlier.
Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2021, was forecast at 140 million bus, down 35 million bus, or 20%, from December and down 73% from 525 million bus in 2020.
The averages of trade expectations were 859 million bus for wheat, 1,599 million bus for corn and 139 million bus for soybeans.
Crop Production, 2020 Summary:
Corn production in 2020 was estimated at 14,182 million bus, up 4% from 2019 but down 2.2% from the November estimate based on lower average yield at 172 bus per acre, down 3.8 bus from November, and harvested area at 82,467,000 acres, down 60,000 acres. The average of trade expectations for corn production was 14,470 million bus, with the USDA estimate even below the full range of individual trade expectations.
Soybean production was estimated at 4,135 million bus, up 16% from 2019 but down 0.8% from the prior estimate as lower average yield of 50.2 bus per acre, down 0.5 bu, more than offset higher harvested area of 82,318,000 acres, up 29,000 acres. The average of trade expectations for soybean production was 4,158 million bus.
Stocks of all wheat on Dec. 1, 2020, were estimated at 1,674 million bus, down 9% from a year earlier, including 483 million bus on farms and 1,190 million bus in commercial storage. Indicated September-November wheat disappearance was 484 million bus, down 4% from the same period a year earlier.
Durum stocks were estimated at 61,250,000 bus, down 5% from a year ago.
Corn stocks on Dec. 1, 2020 were estimated at 11,322 million bus, down slightly from a year ago, including on-farm stocks at 7,046 million bus and off-farm stocks at 4,276 million bus. Indicated September-November disappearance was 4.78 billion bus, up 6% from the same period a year earlier.
Soybean stocks on Dec. 1, 2020, were estimated at 2,933 million bus, down 10% from Dec. 1, 2019, including 1,308 million bus on farms and 1,625 million bus off farms. Indicated September-November disappearance was 1.73 billion bus, up 43% from the same period a year earlier.
Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings:
US winter wheat planted for harvest in 2021 was estimated at 31,991,000 acres, up 1,576,000 acres, or 5%, from 2020. Hard red winter wheat seeded area was estimated at 22.3 million acres, up 4.4%, soft red winter area at 6.23 million acres, up 12%, and white winter wheat area at 3.48 million acres, down 0.3%.
Total winter wheat seeded area was one of the few USDA numbers above the range of trade expectations that averaged 31.528 million acres.