WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its Feb. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, made minor changes from its January forecasts that mostly were focused on exports.
U.S.D.A. carryover forecasts for U.S. wheat and soybeans were below the average of trade expectations but the corn forecast was above. U.S. wheat, corn and soybean futures were trading modestly lower shortly after the report was released at 11 a.m. Central Time.
Report highlights follow.
U.S. wheat carryover lower:
The carryover of U.S. wheat in June 1, 2020, was forecast at 940 million bus, down 25 million bus, or 2.6%, from January and down 13% from 1,080 million bus in 2018-19. The change from January was the result of a 25-million-bu increase in exports, forecast at 1,000 million bus in 2019-20, and compared with 936 million bus in 2018-19. June 1, 2020, ending stocks by class were forecast at 484 million bus for hard red winter wheat, down 5 million bus from January, at 249 million bus for hard red spring, down 15 million bus, at 106 million bus for soft red winter, unchanged, at 80 million bus for white wheat, down 5 million bus, and at 21 million bus for durum, unchanged.
“The only supply or use category that was changed this month was a 25-million-bu increase in exports reflecting growing competitiveness in international markets,” the U.S.D.A. said.
U.S. corn carryover unchanged:
U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2020, was forecast at 1,892 million bus, unchanged from January but down 15% from 2,221 million bus in 2018-19. Corn exports in 2019-20 were forecast at 1,725 million bus, down 50 million bus from January, “reflecting the slow pace of shipments through January,” the U.S.D.A. said. A like increase in forecast use of corn for ethanol, forecast at 5,425 million bus, offset the reduction in exports, resulting in no net change to carryover. There were no other changes from January for corn.
U.S. soybean carryover lower:
The carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2020, was projected at 425 million bus, down 50 million bus, or 11%, from January and down 53% from 909 million bus in 2019. The reduction was based on a like increase in 2019-20 exports, forecast at 1,825 million bus, up 2.8% from January and up 4.4% from 1,748 million bus in 2018-19, “partly reflecting increased imports for China,” the U.S.D.A. said. There were no other changes from January in soybean supply and use forecasts, but the average price paid to farmers in 2019-20 was lowered 25c, to $8.75 per bu.
Key world supply/demand data:
World wheat ending stocks were forecast at 288.03 million tonnes in 2019-20, down 50,000 tonnes from January but up 9.76 million tonnes from 2018-19. World wheat exports were forecast at 182.82 million tonnes, up 1.75 million tonnes from January as higher forecast exports for the United States, Kazakhstan and the European Union more than offset lower exports from Canada and Pakistan.
Global corn ending stocks were forecast at 296.84 million tonnes, down 970,000 tonnes from January and down 23.63 million tonnes, or 7%, from 320.47 million tonnes in 2018-19.
World soybean ending stocks were forecast at 98.86 million tonnes, up 2.19 million tonnes from January but down 12.36 million tonnes, or 11%, from 111.22 million tonnes in 2018-19.