WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its Nov. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report made numerous changes from October to both last year’s estimates and 2022-23 forecasts, resulting in higher ending stocks in 2021-22 but lower stocks in the current year.
For the year that ended Sept. 30, 2022, the USDA raised beet sugar production by 77,618 tons to 5,155,000 tons and lowered cane sugar outturn by 58,824 tons (all in Louisiana) to 3,979,000 tons for a net change of about 19,000 tons with total sugar production of 9,135,000 tons. High-tier imports were bumped up 2,000 tons to 390,000 tons, lifting total supply to 14,485,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from October and up 413,000 tons from 2020-21.
“US sugar supply and use for 2021-22 is revised to incorporate complete fiscal year estimates in USDA’s Sweetener Market Data (report),” the USDA said. Beet sugar production was raised based on higher production in September than expected, while Louisiana cane sugar outturn was lowered on lower-than-expected production in September.
Total deliveries in 2021-22 were estimated at 12,578,000 tons, down 79,000 tons from October based on food deliveries at 12,470,000 tons, down 81,845 tons, “other” at 107,000 tons, unchanged, and exports at 29,000 tons, down 6,000 tons. Total use was estimated at 12,671,000 tons, down 21,000 tons from October but up 304,000 tons from 2020-21.
Most of the decrease in deliveries for food use was “attributable to very low direct consumption imports in September,” the USDA said.
Ending stocks in 2021-22 were estimated at 1,814,000 tons, up 40,823 tons from October, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 14.3%, up from 14%.
For the current 2022-23 marketing year that began Oct. 1, the USDA forecast domestic beet sugar production at 4,994,000 tons, down 111,341 tons from October as “beet processors reduced their forecast of sugar beets available for slicing due to higher expected beet pile shrink.” Cane sugar output was forecast at 4,091,000 tons, up 43,000 tons with increases in both Florida and Louisiana. Total sugar production was forecast at 9,086,000 tons, down 68,0000 tons.
Total imports were forecast at 3,441,000 tons, down 168,986 tons from October, with tariff-rate quota imports at 1,691,000 tons, unchanged, imports from Mexico at 1,425,000 tons, down 194,000 tons “based on lower exportable supply,” and high-tier imports at 75,000 tons, up 25,000 tons.
Total supply in 2022-23 was forecast at 14,341,000 tons, down 196,055 tons from October as “lower total production and imports only mildly offset by higher beginning stocks,” the USDA said.
Total deliveries were forecast at 12,605,000 tons, down 25,000 tons from October, with deliveries for food at 12,500,000 tons, down 25,000 tons, “other” at 105,000 tons, unchanged, and exports at 35,000 tons, also unchanged. Total sugar use was forecast at 12,640,000 tons, down 25,000 tons from October.
US sugar ending stocks in 2022-23 were projected at 1,701,000 tons, down 171,000 tons from October, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 13.5%, down from 14.8% in October.
The USDA estimated Mexico’s 2021-22 imports at 31,000 tonnes, actual weight, down 19,000 tonnes from October, with beginning stocks unchanged at 1,053,000 tonnes and production unchanged at 6,185,000 tonnes. Domestic use was estimated at 4,629,000 tonnes, up 82,000 tonnes from October, and exports at 1,676,000 tonnes, down 118,000 tonnes. Ending stocks were estimated at 964,000 tonnes, up 17,000 tonnes from October.
For 2022-23 the USDA left forecast sugar production in Mexico unchanged at 5,900,000 tonnes. Imports were forecast at 35,000 tonnes, down 15,000 tonnes. Domestic sugar use was forecast at 4,701,000 tonnes, up 154,000 tonnes, and exports at 1,219,000 tonnes, down 183,616 tonnes. Ending stocks were forecast at 979,291 tonnes, up about 32,000 tonnes from October and up 15,000 tonnes from 2021-22.
“Exports under license to the United States are reduced 166,020 tonnes and other exports are reduced 17,596 tonnes to zero,” the USDA said. MBN